Analyze Jonnu Smith's matchup for week 11
Jonnu Smith faces a historically generous Bengals defense that bleeds fantasy points to tight ends, but Pittsburgh’s four-man committee and Smith’s own 3-4 point floor make him a desperation-only stream in 12-team leagues despite the elite matchup.
Cincinnati has allowed the most tight-end fantasy points per game and a league-worst 61 % of receiving yards after the catch—tailor-made for Smith’s YAC skill set—yet Pittsburgh still rotates four tight ends every week, capping every individual ceiling. The Steelers’ quick-timing, high-YAC offense (70 % of passing yards after catch) aligns perfectly with Cincinnati’s coverage issues, but Smith’s route share has swung from 83 % to 25 % to 71 % in consecutive weeks, so the volume remains a guessing game.
After a 5-15-1 TD opening week, Smith has averaged 3.3 targets and 18.5 yards per game while never topping 27 yards, with snap/route shares fluctuating wildly inside a crowded committee.
The underlying metrics hint at efficiency—22 % targets-per-route and 1.02 yards per route—but Pittsburgh’s four-headed tight-end monster prevents any one player from seeing the consistent volume required for fantasy reliability. Darnell Washington dominates red-zone snaps, Pat Freiermuth handles traditional receiving downs, and Connor Heyward doubles on special teams, leaving Smith as the designated "between-the-20s" YAC weapon who rarely sniffs scoring territory. Even against a Bengals defense surrendering 9.4 % touchdowns to tight ends and 7.7 YPA on throws under 2.5 seconds, Smith needs a perfect confluence of game script, positive early down success, and a possible touchdown to crack double-digit fantasy points. Thursday-night short-week games historically feature simplified playbooks and quick passes, which should boost his target probability, yet the Steelers’ league-leading 13-personnel usage still splits those opportunities four ways. Managers in 14-team or TE-premium formats can chase the ceiling, but standard 12-team lineups have safer waiver-wire floors with higher touchdown likelihoods. Expect a 3-28-0.2 line that keeps him off the fantasy radar unless your alternative is a bottom-barrel option or bye-week fill-in.