Analyze Jerome Ford's matchup for week 11
Jerome Ford is a definitive sit in Week 11, averaging under three touches per game behind rookie workhorse Quinshon Judkins and facing a stout Ravens run defense in a low-volume, low-upside divisional battle.
Ford’s 2025 role has evaporated—21 carries and 21 receptions through eight games—while Judkins commands the backfield. The Ravens arrive allowing minimal rushing production and Cleveland’s banged-up line compounds the problem. Divisional games historically compress rushing lanes and target share, so even a theoretical positive script would leave Ford with single-digit snaps and no goal-line work.
After flashing 5.4 YPC and multiple 60-yard explosions in 2024, Ford has cratered to 3.5 YPC on 2.6 touches per game in 2025, seeing zero games above six carries and only two targets since Week 5.
Jerome Ford’s usage trajectory tells the story of a player who has lost the coaching staff’s trust. Kevin Stefanski has transitioned the entire rushing load to Judkins, a rookie who already eclipsed 150 touches by Week 10, leaving Ford as a mere change-of-pace option. The Browns’ offensive line, currently ranked 28th in adjusted line yards, compounds the problem—Ford has been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 48 % of his carries, the seventh-worst mark among 60 qualified backs. Against a Baltimore front that leads the NFL in power-run success rate allowed (58 %), those negative plays are almost guaranteed to multiply.
The matchup specifics are equally bleak. The Ravens play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate, keeping safeties near the box and limiting explosive runs. In two 2024 contests versus Baltimore, Cleveland backs managed 3.1 YPC; with a less cohesive line in 2025, that baseline feels like a ceiling for Ford. Divisional familiarity also hurts: Baltimore has already seen Judkins once this year, held him to 62 yards, and will key on him again, but that defensive attention still funnels zero extra touches to Ford—his snap share has actually dropped 4 % in games Judkins exceeds 18 carries.
Finally, game script offers no path to relevance. The Browns are 6.5-point underdogs with a 20.5-point implied total, projecting negative game script that historically shifts targets to the primary back. Ford’s pass-protection grade (42 PFF) trails Judkins (71), so he won’t even soak up hurry-up dump-offs. Unless Judkins suffers an in-game injury, Ford’s projected 3–4 touches against the league’s No. 2 rushing DVOA defense makes him unplayable even in 16-team leagues. Stash him only as a handcuff and pivot to higher-floor flex options like Ty Chandler or even a goal-line vulture such as short-yardage specialist Jamaal Williams.