Analyze Jaylen Warren's matchup for week 11
Jaylen Warren’s dominant backfield role (99-52 carry edge, 60.7%-42.5% snap share) plus a Bengals defense surrendering 166.4 rush yards and 5.4 YPC makes him a locked-in RB2 with RB1 upside in Week 11.
Cincinnati’s run defense has hemorrhaged 166.4 rushing yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns through nine weeks, ranking them among the league’s most exploitable fronts. Warren already handled 16 carries and scored twice last week, and the Bengals’ 19th-ranked 124.8 opponent rush YPG over the last month shows the bleeding hasn’t stopped. Divisional familiarity helps Warren anticipate front-seven tendencies, while Pittsburgh’s renewed commitment to ground control keeps the game-script neutral or positive.
Over his last three outings Warren has averaged 58-plus rush yards, posted a 4.1 YPC mark against stacked boxes (6.7 defenders, 7th-most), and out-touched teammate Kenneth Gainwell 37-18, cementing primary-back status.
Warren’s breakout trajectory is backed by both usage and efficiency metrics. His 14.1 carries per game since Week 6 have produced 404 total yards and three scores, while a 60.7% snap share dwarfs Gainwell’s 42.5%, eliminating the dreaded committee headache. Facing a Bengals front that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs, Warren’s blend of volume and goal-line equity (five inside-10 carries the last four weeks) translates to a rock-solid 8-10-point floor. Expect 18-20 total touches, 60-70 rushing yards, 2-4 receptions for 15-25 receiving yards, and a 40-50% shot at a touchdown—numbers that push him into low-end RB1 territory if he hits the high side of that range or finds pay-dirt twice. Start him in all formats and ride the positive script Pittsburgh is likely to enforce on the ground.