Analyze Jaylen Waddle's matchup for week 11
Waddle draws the NFL’s most WR-friendly defense (26.5 FPPG allowed) and has averaged 7.2 targets over his last five outings; fire him up as a high-upside WR2.
Washington has hemorrhaged 1,779 yards and 13 TDs to wideouts while allowing the most WR fantasy points per game (26.5). Their slot/speed deficiencies align perfectly with Waddle’s skill set, and with Tyreek Hill likely drawing top coverage, Waddle should run free against a secondary that has already surrendered blow-up games to Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown.
After a career-low 58-744-2 start, Waddle has posted 24-401-2 on 36 targets over his last five (10.5 PPG) and is finally seeing consistent 7+ target usage.
Washington’s defense is a statistical goldmine for opposing WRs—264.5 total PPR points, 26.5 per game, and 13 touchdowns allowed through ten weeks, all among the league’s worst. Their slot coverage has been especially permissive, ranking dead last in DVOA against receivers who win with speed and separation, Waddle’s calling cards. With the Dolphins at home in a game Vegas projects as competitive and high-scoring, Miami should keep the pedal down for four quarters, ensuring passing-volume upside.
Waddle’s recent usage provides the other half of the equation. After an early-season foot injury and offensive-role confusion, he has averaged a 24% target share since Week 6, turning 7.2 looks per game into 80.2 yards and 0.4 TDs—numbers that would prorate to low-end WR1 territory. His 2.27 yards per route run over that span ranks 12th among 71 qualifying WRs, indicating the efficiency that made him a top-24 fantasy pick last summer is returning just in time for a cupcake matchup.
Game-script risk is minimal: Washington’s offense (sixth in points since Week 7) should keep the scoreboard moving, preventing a Miami run-heavy second half. Expect 8–10 targets, with a 30% shot at double-digit receptions if Hill draws shadow coverage from rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes. Projected final line: 7–9 catches, 85–105 yards, 1 TD—good for 16–20 PPR points and a likely week-winning performance for patient managers who endured his early-season dud.