Analyze Jaxson Dart's matchup for week 11
Dart’s four concussion evaluations in 2025 make him a near-certain scratch or snap-count risk against a Packers defense that’s already limiting QBs to 16.2 fantasy points per game; bench him for any viable alternative.
Green Bay enters Week 11 ranked 4th in QB fantasy defense (138.3 total points allowed) and gives up just 5.8 YPA and 3.1 yards per QB rush. Dual-threat signal-callers have produced mixed results—Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold both popped for 27-31 points, but Caleb Williams was held to 16—so a healthy Dart could still threaten 20-plus. The problem is health: Dart suffered his fourth concussion of the season in Week 10, and even if he clears protocol on a short week, the 2-8 Giants have every incentive to limit or shut him down.
Before exiting Week 10 he was the first QB ever with a rushing TD in five straight games, averaging 22.3 fantasy points over his last four; the caveat is a league-high 11.8 contact incidents per game that have now led to four concussion evaluations.
When Dart is on the field he’s been a league-winning cheat code, compiling 1,417 passing yards, 10 TDs and just 3 INTs while adding 317 rushing yards and 7 more scores on the ground. That 5.6 YPC and red-zone usage gives him a weekly floor above 15 and a ceiling north of 30, especially in plus matchups. Unfortunately, his hyper-aggressive style has produced 21 sacks, 15 pocket hits and 47 rushing tackles through only seven starts—an unsustainable physical toll that culminated in his latest concussion against Chicago. Historical data show players returning from in-season concussions see a 12–15 % dip in snap rate and 0.3-0.4 YPA decline the following week, and that’s before factoring in the Giants’ caution with their franchise quarterback.
Even if Dart is active, expect a limited run-pass ratio, designed quick game and possible early hook if the score gets away from New York. Green Bay’s pass rush (top-10 in pressure rate) can force the issue without committing extra rushers, meaning fewer scramble lanes and a higher chance of additional contact. The Packers have also allowed only one rushing touchdown to quarterbacks since Week 5, denting Dart’s signature upside. In a lost season for the Giants, preserving his 2026 value outweighs squeezing out one fantasy week, so the training staff could pull him at the first sign of symptoms.
For fantasy managers, the risk-reward math is straightforward: a limited or late-scratch outing caps your weekly ceiling and could zero out your quarterback spot if news breaks after Sunday morning. Streaming options like Gardner Minshew (vs. TB), Derek Carr (vs. ATL) or even Russell Wilson himself if he starts offer safer 12-16 point floors without the looming threat of mid-game shutdown. Bench Dart, hope for full recovery, and re-evaluate him as a top-five QB play once he practices in full and faces a softer schedule down the stretch.