Analyze Jaxon Smith Njigba's matchup for week 11
Start JSN without hesitation; the NFL’s yardage leader has averaged 16.5 PPR points over his last five, draws a middling Rams pass D, and owns a target floor that keeps his ceiling sky-high even in a tough divisional spot.
The 5-2 Rams rank 13th in passing yards allowed (203.1 per game) and have surrendered eight TDs through the air, making them a neutral-to-slight draw for WRs. Divisional familiarity could bring extra bracket looks, yet Los Angeles still allows 6.4 YPA and will have to contend with a Seahawks offense that leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.92) and is implied for 23 points in a 48.5-point total with playoff seeding on the line.
Explosive ascending stretch: 36-625-3 over the last five weeks (16.5 PPR/G) and the current league leader in receiving yards (1,041) while seeing 11+ targets per game during that span.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has vaulted into the league’s elite tier by weaponizing elite route nuance and 11.3 targets per game since Week 6. That volume, paired with Sam Darnold’s league-best 9.92 YPA, makes JSN largely matchup-proof. The Rams’ zone-match coverages are competent but lack a shadow corner capable of travelling with JSN across formations; expect some double-coverage on early downs, yet Seattle moves him enough (62% slot, 38% wide the last month) to guarantee isolated looks. The game script is neutral—Seattle a 2.5-point dog—so passing volume should stay elevated, and JSN’s red-zone usage has ticked up (five end-zone targets the last four games). Even his "floor" game this year produced 4-79, and that came versus these same Cardinals. Translation: the combination of elite target share, quarterback efficiency, and a merely average secondary gives JSN a 12-point floor with 30-plus-point upside in a playoff-implications shootout. Fire him up as a top-five WR in all formats.