Analyze Jared Goff's matchup for week 11
Goff has been the QB7 on the year and comes in on a four-game heater (1,067-9-2, 72.3% completions) against an Eagles defense that’s allowed 290+ passing yards in three straight and ranks 28th in pressure rate. Expect 280+ yards and multiple scores in a projected shootout.
Philadelphia has bled top-12 QB numbers in six of its last eight games, giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. Their 32.1% pressure rate leaves clean pockets, and they’re 29th in play-action DVOA—Goff’s bread and butter. With an over/under of 48.5 and Detroit’s line allowing just 1.8 sacks per game lately, the stage is set for Goff to attack a secondary that’s already surrendered multiple TD passes in three straight.
Over his last four starts Goff is averaging 267 yards with 9 TDs, 2 INTs, a 72.3% completion rate and 8.2 YPA; he’s posted 100-plus passer ratings in three of those outings and sits as the overall QB7 in fantasy points per game.
The Lions’ offense has scored 30+ in four of its last six, and Goff is the engine: sixth in deep-ball completion rate (44.2%), fourth in red-zone TD rate (68.9%), and first in play-action passer rating (119.3). Those metrics align perfectly with Philadelphia’s defensive flaws. The Eagles have allowed 290+ yards in three straight, rank 28th in pressure created, and are 29th against play-action—creating a trifecta of opportunity for Goff to exploit single-high looks to Jameson Williams and intermediate zones to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Game script also tilts pass-heavy. Detroit is a slight underdog in the week’s highest total (48.5), so Dan Campbell will keep the throttle down. The offensive line, Pro Football Focus’ third-ranked pass-blocking unit, should neutralize a sporadic Eagles front, giving Goff the 2.6-second pockets he’s thrived in. When protected for 2.5+ seconds this year, Goff’s EPA per attempt jumps to 0.38, comparable to peak Mahomes. Expect 36-40 attempts, 280-300 yards, and at least two scores as the Lions trade blows with Jalen Hurts.
Bottom line: every predictive indicator—recent form, matchup data, Vegas totals, and positional usage—points to a ceiling outcome. Goff is a locked-in QB1 with top-five weekly upside and a realistic shot at 25-plus fantasy points in championship-critical Week 11.