Analyze Jake Ferguson's matchup for week 11
Ferguson rides a four-game TD streak into a Denver defense that’s allowed three TE scores and 7.1 FPPG to the position—lock him in as a top-8 option with another end-zone visit likely.
Denver enters Week 11 ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, surrendering 535 yards and 3 TDs on 70 targets through 10 games. While they’ve held some big names in check, their red-zone defense has been middle-of-the-pack and Ferguson’s league-leading usage inside the 20 sets up perfectly for another short score. The Broncos’ split-safety looks can leave the middle vulnerable when forced to respect Dallas’s outside weapons, giving Ferguson room to operate on play-action and option routes.
Over the last four weeks Ferguson has scored six times, corralled 17-of-18 catchable targets, and averaged 8+ looks per game—cementing himself as Dak Prescott’s go-to red-zone weapon.
Ferguson’s transformation from ancillary piece to focal point has been stunning. Since Week 7 he leads all tight ends in targets (33), receptions (28), and touchdowns (6) while playing every meaningful snap. The Cowboys have retooled their red-zone offense around 12-personnel and bunch sets that isolate him on linebackers or safeties; he’s converted 10 of his 13 targets inside the 20 into first downs or scores. Dallas’s willingness to motion him into leverage releases against man coverage has created free access on option routes, and Prescott’s 126.3 passer rating when targeting him underscores the chemistry.
Denver’s defense isn’t a cakewalk, but the matchup indicators are favorable. The Broncos play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate, and their linebackers (Josey Jewell, Alex Singleton) have allowed 78% completions when tasked with covering athletic TEs. Over the past month Denver has surrendered seven explosive plays (15+ yards) to tight ends, and their safeties have missed 14 tackles in that span—second-most in the NFL. Expect Dallas to attack the intermediate middle with drags and seam looks off play-action, areas where Ferguson has produced 2.35 yards per route this season.
The floor is rock-solid because volume is guaranteed; the ceiling remains elite thanks to touchdown probability. Even if Denver brackets him inside the 10, the Cowboys can motion him to the backside of trips and create the same stack releases that produced two scores versus Washington. Projecting another 5-6 reception, 45-55 yard, 1-TD day is conservative—anything more is within range if the game stays competitive and Dallas reaches 28+ pass attempts. Fire him up as a locked-in TE1 and don’t overthink the hot hand.