Analyze Hunter Henry's matchup for week 11
Henry enters Thursday night as Drake Maye’s 20.6% target magnet against a Jets defense that’s already allowed seven TE touchdowns (tied for 5th-most). The volume is elite, the matchup is neutral-to-favorable, and positive TD regression is overdue—lock him in as a low-end TE1 with legitimate ceiling.
New York’s defense ranks 19th in fantasy points surrendered to tight ends (14.48 per game) and has coughed up 7 scores on 66 targets to the position. Henry’s red-zone role (68% catch rate, team-high inside-the-20 looks) aligns perfectly with the Jets’ biggest weakness against TEs. On a short-week divisional stage, expect Maye to keep peppering his security blanket in the intermediate zones where the Jets’ linebackers and split-field safeties have struggled all year.
Since Week 6 he’s TE9 in half-PPR, averaging 9.1 points with 5.2 catches and 49.2 yards per game while commanding 23.1% of the rookie QB’s looks—five 8-plus-target outings in his last six.
Hunter Henry’s 2025 surge is built on elite, quarterback-agnostic volume. Drake Maye has targeted him on nearly one of every four snaps since taking the reins, translating to a 97-target, 66-catch, 674-yard line through ten weeks. That 68% catch rate and 20.6% target share are top-five among tight ends over that span, and the underlying metrics scream positive regression: Henry paces the Patriots in red-zone routes and expected touchdowns (4-5) yet has only two actual scores. Thursday night brings a Jets secondary that’s technically 14th in yards allowed to TEs but hemorrhages touchdowns, surrendering seven already—tied for the fifth-most in football. New York’s primary cover players at linebacker (Mosley, Williams) and hybrid safety Tony Adams have each been beaten for multiple scores by tight ends this season, and their short-week communication issues show up most in the middle of the field. With the game script projecting neutral (a 2.5-point spread), Henry’s floor sits at 5-6 grabs for 55-65 yards, and the touchdown upside pushes his realistic ceiling into the 20-point range in full-PPR. Add in bye-week scarcity at the position and you have one of the safest tight-end plays on the slate.