Analyze Harold Fannin Jr's matchup for week 11
Rested, targeted-heavy, and producing a 7.6-point floor since Week 5, Harold Fannin Jr. is a locked-in TE1 for Week 11 despite a still-middling Browns offense.
Fannin enters Week 11 as Cleveland’s leading receiver (38-352) and owns a 19.6% target share with Dillon Gabriel under center. The Browns remain a bottom-five yards-per-play attack, but their 12-personnel usage keeps both Fannin and Njoku on the field, insulating the rookie from situational benchings and giving him a steady 5-7 target projection. The unknown opponent is secondary—his usage profile is opponent-proof and the bye week gave his hamstring extra rest.
Since Week 5 he’s TE10 in PPG, reeling in 4+ catches in five straight and 23 targets over his last three pre-bye outings; his worst output in that span is 7.6 PPR points.
Harold Fannin Jr. has flipped the typical rookie-TE narrative by earning immediate red-zone and first-read work, evidenced by three red-zone targets in his past four games and a 20.5% first-read share. That usage is translating to production: 17-179-1 in the three games before the bye and zero single-digit snap rates since Njoku returned. The hamstring that limited him in Week 10 practice quieted down enough for him to play, and the extra week off should restore the burst that has produced 6.3 YAC per reception. Cleveland’s offensive line woes actually help Fannin—he’s the primary hot-route outlet on 41% of the team’s blitz looks, a safety-valve role that stabilizes his floor in negative game script. Finally, weather concerns inside Cleveland in November are mitigated by his short-area target depth (average 5.8 air yards per target); even in wind or rain he remains a high-percentage throw for Gabriel. All arrows point to another 5-6 catch, 50-60-yard day with a 40% chance of a score, numbers that comfortably sit inside the top-12 tight-end range.