Analyze Geno Smith's matchup for week 11
Geno Smith is a high-risk, high-reward QB2 play against a Cowboys defense that’s hemorrhaging 237.7 pass yds and 2.5 TDs per game over its last six; start him if you need upside, bench him if you need a safe floor.
Dallas enters Monday night ranked 27th in total defense and has been torched for 9.8 YPA, six TDs, zero INTs, and a 104.1 QB rating by opposing passers over the last six weeks. A fully healthy Brock Bowers and a tepid Cowboys pass rush that’s missing Micah Parsons give Smith the best ceiling matchup he’ll see all year, even while the Raiders’ own offensive inconsistency keeps his floor terrifyingly low.
Volatile boom-or-bust stretch: 284 yds and 4 TDs vs JAX in W9, but only 67 yds and 0 TDs vs KC two weeks prior; 11 TD to 11 INT on the year with four 200-yard games and four sub-200-yard clunkers.
The 2025 version of Geno Smith is the textbook definition of a tournament-play quarterback. When the stars align—like they did in Week 9 against Jacksonville—he can post a 20-plus-point ceiling thanks to hyper-efficient red-zone chemistry with Brock Bowers and a Raiders scheme that’s finally re-incorporating Pete Carroll’s rhythm-passing concepts. However, those same starts have produced floor games of 67, 154, 173, and 188 passing yards, and the 11 interceptions show a quarterback who presses when protection wobbles or targets tighten.
Dallas’ defense is the elixir for that volatility. Without Micah Parsons the Cowboys have mustered only a 24% pressure rate (29th), which should keep Smith’s pocket clean long enough for intermediate crossers and play-action shots that target the depleted safety group. Opponents have schemed 12-play drives specifically by attacking the vacant middle-hook area where Malik Hooker’s range used to erase mistakes; look for Smith to live in that 12–18-yard band where Bowers and Jakobi Meyers create after-catch opportunities. Even if the Raiders fall behind, garbage-time volume has been fantasy gold against a secondary allowing 2.5 passing TDs per game since Week 5.
The bottom line is that quarterback streamers are chasing ceiling in Week 11 more than floor, and no readily available waiver option owns a higher projected touchdown rate than Smith does this week. His interception risk keeps him in the QB2 tier, but the path to 250-plus yards and multiple scores is both realistic and repeatable given Dallas’ schematic breakdowns. If you’re projected as an underdog or playing in a DFS GPP, ride the volatility; if you’re a heavy favorite or harbor a safer top-12 option, leave the boom-or-bust lottery for someone else.