Analyze Dj Moore's matchup for week 11
Moore is battling a shoulder injury and has been demoted to a 1B role behind Rome Odunze; a zero-catch Week 10 and volatile target share make him unstartable despite Baltimore’s middling WR defense.
Baltimore’s secondary has leaked 163.5 WR yards per game and 19 WR touchdowns, but they’ve clamped down the last two weeks and Moore’s usage is collapsing. He’s run only 62% of routes the last three weeks while Odunze commands the deep shots and Colston Loveland eats middle targets. The Ravens play man at the sixth-highest rate, a coverage Moore has historically struggled against (1.68 yards per route vs man since 2023). Add the shoulder unknown and a 15% target share over the last month and the matchup paper advantage is nullified.
22-258-1 on 31 targets through six healthy games; five-week target counts of 9, 4, 7, 4, 0; snap share fell from 88% in Week 6 to 68% in Week 9 and 54% in Week 10.
The underlying numbers scream fade. Moore’s 1.9 YPRR ranks 94th among 113 qualifiers and his 14.7% targets-per-route rate is a career low. Chicago has shifted to a 2-TE, 2-back personnel on early downs, capping Moore’s routes and turning him into a gadget-dependent piece—his two-touchdown day in Week 9 came on a 17-yard end-around and a two-yard pop-pass, not traditional WR production. Baltimore’s man-heavy scheme forces receivers to win isolated, but Moore’s 39% catch rate vs man coverage since 2023 is third-worst among 48 WRs with 50+ such targets. With Odunze commanding a 31% air-yard share the last month and Loveland emerging as the middle-of-field safety blanket, Moore’s path to 6+ targets requires negative game script the Bears have largely avoided. Even if the shoulder improves, the role erosion makes his weekly ceiling a 4-60-0 line that doesn’t crack top-50 upside. Bench him in all 10- and 12-team formats and only deploy as a desperation FLEX in 14-teamers if Odunze sits or inactives create a 25%+ target share.