Analyze Devonta Smith's matchup for week 11
Smith has averaged 12.5 PPR points over his last three games and draws a Lions secondary that’s bled production to slot/secondary wideouts; lock him in as a high-floor WR2 with 6-8 catch, 75-90 yard upside.
The Lions arrive at the Linc allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs through Week 10, and 60% of that damage has come against secondary/slot weapons—precisely where Smith has run 68% of his routes since Week 6. With A.J. Brown still nursing a hamstring, Smith owns a 28% target share and a 78% catch rate in that span, giving him both volume and efficiency against a defense that’s allowed 14 TDs to wideouts already.
Over his last five games Smith has secured 29-of-37 targets for 459 yards (13.4 YPR) and one score, peaking with a 9-183-1 eruption in Week 7; the arrow is pointing decidedly up.
Smith’s 2025 rebound has been driven by two factors: health and usage. Fully cleared from last year’s high-ankle issue, he’s seeing 8.4 targets per game since Week 6 and lining up in the slot on 43% of snaps—creating natural mismatches against Detroit’s depleted nickel coverage that’s allowed 112.3 passer rating on throws inside. Jalen Hurts has fed him when single-high looks arise (11.2 YPT vs Cover-1/3), and with Saquon Barkley forcing eight-man boxes, Smith’s 1-on-1 opportunities should persist. The weather forecast is calm for mid-November (38°F, 7 mph wind), so volume and efficiency remain bankable. Expect a 6-8 reception, 75-90 yard floor with a 30% red-zone look share; that combination slots him firmly into WR2 territory with top-15 weekly upside.