Analyze Derrick Henry's matchup for week 11
Start Derrick Henry. Cleveland’s league-best 45.5 rushing-yards-per-game allowed is scary, but his 2024 dominance over them (211 yds, 3 TDs, 6.8 YPC), elite volume, and revenge narrative outweigh one bad Week 2 outing.
Cleveland enters Week 11 as the NFL’s top run defense, surrendering just 45.5 rushing yards per game and 191.5 total yards overall. In Week 2 they bottled Henry up for 23 yds on 11 carries using multiple fronts (4-2 4i, Bear, creative stunts) and perfect gap discipline. Baltimore, however, is expected to attack the edges and use play-action to loosen the front, while Henry’s 2024 film vs. the Browns (6.8 YPC) shows the matchup is exploitable with correct schematics.
Explosive volatility: 169 yds, 2 TDs (9.4 YPC) in Week 1 followed by a 23-yd dud Week 2 vs. Cleveland.
Derrick Henry’s 2025 start illustrates the extreme boom-or-bust roller-coaster that has defined his fantasy life. After bulldozing Buffalo for 169 yards and a pair of scores, he crashed to 23 rushing yards on 11 carries against these same Browns, a 146-yard swing that underscores both his game-breaking ceiling and the risk baked into any matchup with Cleveland’s disciplined front. The Browns’ defense, coordinated by Jim Schwartz and spearheaded by Myles Garrett, leads the league in rushing yards allowed by a wide margin, yet sits 0-2, hinting that their offensive failures have masked just how suffocating they can be when games stay within one score. Schwartz’s unit mixes 4-2 looks with a 4i-shade to the tight-end side, Bear fronts that turn the nose into a lag defender, and well-timed crash stunts that force runners laterally into unblocked pursuit. Henry seldom faced an interior crease in Week 2; Baltimore’s guards lost leverage, and Cleveland’s linebackers scraped cleanly over the top to cap gains at the line of scrimmage. Still, macro trends favor a rebound. Henry’s touch share remains massive—he accounted for 83% of Ravens running-back carries in Weeks 1-2—and goal-line usage is locked in after 16 touchdowns last season and two more in the opener. Historical data is equally encouraging: in two 2024 meetings with Cleveland, Henry ripped off 211 yards and 3 TDs on 31 totes (6.8 YPC), the third-best YPC he owns against any single opponent in his career. Add in bulletin-board material from safety Grant Delpit, who called tackling Henry “not hard,” and the revenge narrative is impossible to ignore. Expect offensive coordinator Todd Monken to counter Cleveland’s interior strength by stretching the defense horizontally—outside zone, toss plays, and play-action boots that force linebackers to hesitate. If Baltimore can reach the second level, Henry’s contact balance and breakaway speed remain elite even at age 31. The floor is low against a defense allowing 2.3 yards per carry, but the ceiling is league-winning; volume, touchdown odds, and a 6.8-YPC track record in this exact matchup make him an every-week RB1.