Analyze Deeboo Samuel's matchup for week 11
With Terry McLaurin likely out, Samuel has become Marcus Mariota’s clear WR1, seeing 24 % of targets and 83 % of snaps; the Dolphins struggle after the catch, making Samuel’s screen/rush role a 15–18-point PPR floor play.
The Commanders meet Miami in an international 9:30 a.m. ET tilt where Kliff Kingsbury can isolate Samuel on a defense that ranks bottom-10 in YAC allowed. Without McLaurin, Samuel slides into every-down usage: 60 % slot/40 % wide, 2–4 designed runs, and red-zone opps. Miami’s corners play soft zone to protect a banged-up secondary, inviting the quick hitters and bubbles that have kept Samuel’s target rate above 24 % since Jayden Daniels went down.
11 catches on 15 targets for 94 yards plus 22 rushing yards in Mariota’s two starts, 82.7 % snap share, and an expanding "wide-back" role.
Samuel’s late-career renaissance in Washington is scheme-driven. Kliff Kingsbury’s spread concepts treat him as a horizontal linebacker stressor: bunch stacks force zone declarations, then motion him into the backfield for power/option looks. When McLaurin left Week 9 with a quad, Samuel’s route rate jumped to 94 % and his aDOT climbed from 5.8 to 8.4, proving the staff trusts him beyond manufactured touches. Mariota’s ball-speed is average, but he’s decisive on RPO slants and glance routes—passes Samuel turns into 10-yard gains. The Dolphins allow 71 % completions (fourth-worst) and 6.9 YAC per reception; their slot corner gives up a 115.6 passer rating. Expect 8–10 targets, 2 carries, and a 45 % share of air yards. Even without a splash TD, that volume supports a 15-point PPR floor, with ceiling if one of the screens breaks into the secondary. Sit him only if your league starts three WRs and you own two top-12 guys; otherwise lock him into flex.