Analyze Deebo Samuel's matchup for week 11
With Terry McLaurin out, Samuel projects for 9-11 targets against a Lions slot defense that bleeds YAC and is down CB Cameron Sutton—start the Commanders’ last healthy weapon.
Detroit has allowed the sixth-most PPR points to WRs, ranking 27th in intermediate coverage and 31st in tackling efficiency—both direct pathways to Deebo’s after-catch dominance. Sutton’s absence leaves rookie slot corner Steven Gilmore on an island, and the Lions’ 8.2 YPT surrendered to inside receivers is the league’s worst clip.
After a hot start (38 targets, 300-3 in Weeks 1-5), Samuel’s heel issue has sapped explosion—12-67-0 on 17 targets the last three weeks—yet his target share has actually grown under Marcus Mariota.
Volume is king in fantasy, and no wideout left on Washington’s roster commands more of it than Samuel. With McLaurin likely sidelined until after Washington’s Week 12 bye, the 29-year-old hybrid is pacing for a 30-percent target share that renders recent efficiency concerns moot. Mariota has fed him 15 targets in three starts and shown no hesitation on quick hitters, screens, and shallow crossers—concepts that neutralize Detroit’s top-ten pass rush and exploit its slot vulnerabilities. Even at 80-percent health, Samuel’s 79-percent catch rate with Mariota keeps the floor stable, while his career 8.4 YAC per reception offers week-winning upside against a Lions defense that whiffs on 19 percent of slot tackle attempts (third-highest rate). The Commanders’ offensive line remains leaky, but Samuel’s average target depth has actually shortened since the quarterback change, turning potential sacks into extended plays that fit his run-after-catch profile. Expect 9-11 looks, 70-90 total yards, and a 40-percent shot at a touchdown—numbers that play as a locked-in WR2 with easy WR1 ceiling if one of those patented 40-yard post-catch house calls materializes.