Analyze David Montgomery's matchup for week 11
Montgomery has slipped to 6.3 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks while Jahmyr Gibbs dominates explosive work; the Eagles matchup offers little hope for a rebound, so he’s a bench-only play in Week 11.
The Lions travel to Philadelphia with their offensive line still rounding into form and their backfield hierarchy now lopsided. Detroit has quietly tilted the snap and touch share toward Gibbs, leaving Montgomery as a goal-line dependent early-down back. The Eagles front is stout against traditional rush attacks and has allowed the eighth-fewest RB receptions, shrinking Montgomery’s already modest receiving path. Without a positive game script or multiple goal-line plunges, his volume will be too light to trust in fantasy lineups.
Season-high 38 snaps in Week 10 produced only 71 rushing yards and zero touchdowns while Gibbs erupted for 172 total yards and three scores; the 6.3 FPPG average over the last three is a season-worst clip.
The underlying usage data explains the collapse in production. Since Week 8 Montgomery has handled just 42% of the Lions’ RB opportunities, down from 56% during the first seven weeks, and his red-zone share has fallen below 40%. Gibbs is not merely the change-of-pace; he is now the featured weapon in high-leverage spots, including two-minute drills and most passing downs. That leaves Montgomery reliant on neutral or positive game scripts that allow Detroit to stay in base personnel, a scenario unlikely in Philadelphia where the Eagles are 4.5-point favorites and field a top-five run defense by DVOA.
Even if the Lions jump ahead, Montgomery’s ceiling is capped by a 1.8-yard after-contact average over the last month, worst among 32 backs with 40+ carries in that span. The Eagles’ interior line, anchored by Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, ranks third in stuff rate, meaning Montgomery’s typical four-yard grinds could turn into repeated second-and-longs, pushing the offense back toward Gibbs’ explosiveness. Unless Detroit reaches the 5-yard line—where they’ve given Montgomery 12 carries this year—there is no touch volume that projects to double-digit fantasy points.
Finally, the macro schedule offers no reprieve. After Philadelphia, Detroit faces Chicago, Minnesota, and Dallas, all top-12 RB defenses, before a Week 17 championship matchup versus San Francisco. If you’re clinging to season-long upside, the window has closed; Montgomery is a matchup-specific desperation play at best. Bench him in Week 11 and explore higher-upside flyers like Zack Moss, Ty Chandler, or even a returning Keaton Mitchell who offer similar touch floors with far more explosive juice.