Analyze Daniel Jones's matchup for week 11
Daniel Jones enters the Colts’ Week 11 bye in free-fall, having coughed up 8 turnovers in his last two games after throwing only 6 picks in the first eight; the break gives him time to fix ball-security issues, but fantasy managers should bench him until he proves the bleeding has stopped.
Indianapolis sits 8-2 and leads the AFC South, but Jones’ sudden turnover spree—4 INTs and 3 lost fumbles the last two weeks—has overshadowed a once-efficient offense. The bye arrives as a life raft: a chance to heal the bumps and bruises from 8 sacks over that span and to re-focus on keeping two hands on the ball when pressure closes. Coming out of the break the schedule stiffens immediately with a road trip to Kansas City followed by three more playoff-caliber opponents, so how Jones responds in Week 12 will decide whether the Colts stay on a first-round-bye track or slide into a wildcard dogfight.
After posting a 14:3 TD-to-INT ratio and 69.6% completions through Week 7, Jones has cratered to 4 TDs, 4 INTs and 7 total giveaways in Weeks 9-10 while taking frequent hits and showing loose ball-handling on scrambles.
The Colts’ offensive renaissance under Shane Steichen was built on quick rhythm throws and heavy play-action that minimized Jones’ risk, a formula that produced the league’s highest-scoring attack through mid-October. The past two games, however, saw opponents dial up more simulated pressure and edge contain spies, forcing Jones to abandon structure and exposing his habit of carrying the ball one-handed. Pittsburgh and Atlanta combined for 8 sacks and 7 forced fumbles, turning a once-efficient quarterback into a turnover fountain. Phil Simms’ public critique underscores the coaching consensus: the first priority out of the bye must be fundamental pocket poise—securing the mesh point on RPOs, tucking and bracing when the first read is covered, and throwing the ball away instead of forcing late-window passes into robber-coverage looks.
From a schematic standpoint, expect Steichen to return to the heavy 12-personnel and motion-heavy boots that shelled the middle of the field early in the year, giving Jones simplified half-field reads and an outlet valve of Jonathan Taylor on swings and check-downs. Taylor’s 244 rushing yards against Atlanta prove the ground game can still dominate, so the play-sheet should skew run-first early in Kansas City to slow Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic blitz packages and keep Jones in manageable third-and-mediums. If the Colts can re-establish 4.5 yards per carry, play-action lanes will reopen for vertical shots to Michael Pittman and rookie slot weapon Whittington, rekindling the 8.2 yards-per-attempt clip Jones posted in September.
Fantasy-wise, the upside remains tantalizing—five rushing touchdowns show his dual-threat floor is higher than pure pocket passers—but turnovers tank weekly ceilings. Until Jones proves he can survive a hostile Arrowhead environment without multiple giveaways, he belongs on benches for safer top-12 options. Monitor Week 12 pre-snap operation and post-throw decision speed; if he shows two-handed security and gets the ball out on time, he can re-enter lineups during the soft stretch that follows (vs. HOU, @ JAX). If the turnover bug persists, Indianapolis will have to win in spite of its quarterback, and fantasy managers should pivot to streaming alternatives.