Analyze Dalton Kincaid's matchup for week 11
Kincaid’s hamstring injury, limited usage, and uncertain Week 11 status outweigh a favorable Buccaneers matchup; sit him and stream a healthier tight end.
Tampa Bay enters Week 11 allowing roughly 67 receiving yards per game to tight ends and has surrendered five-plus catches to the position multiple times this season, creating a paper-friendly matchup for a healthy Bills TE. However, Kincaid’s hamstring issue—he was quickly ruled out after the injury in Week 10—makes the on-paper advantage moot. Even if active, expect snap and route-share restrictions that cap both floor and ceiling.
Since a hot start, Kincaid has faded: 44-448-2 on only 71 targets (15th among TEs) while playing just 42.7% of early-down 11-personnel snaps, capping weekly upside.
Dalton Kincaid’s 2025 campaign has devolved from preseason breakout hype to fantasy frustration, and Week 10’s hamstring strain may be the final straw for reliable starting consideration. The injury occurred midway through the Dolphins game, and the immediate shutdown signals anything but a minor tweak; hamstrings linger, and even a limited return within seven days risks re-aggravation. That medical reality collides with usage data that already painted Kincaid as a part-time player: Dawson Knox continues to siphon early-down and red-zone work, leaving Kincaid dependent on pass-heavy scripts and 12-personnel packages. Against a middling Tampa Bay defense that has leaked splash plays to tight ends, the matchup would normally warrant a fringe-TE1 ranking, yet the injury uncertainty overrides it. Expect the Bills to list him as questionable, practice on a limited basis, and potentially suit up in a decoy or snap-count role—exactly the profile that burns fantasy managers. Streaming alternatives such as Cade Otton, Noah Fant, or Theo Johnson provide safer floors and comparable ceilings this week. In seasonal leagues, the prudent move is to bench Kincaid, stash him for a potential playoff rebound, and pivot to one of the widely available replacements rather than risking a zero or one-catch outing in a must-win stretch.