Analyze Dak Prescott's matchup for week 11
Prescott is an auto-start against a Raiders defense that bleeds 254 pass yds/gm and 8.2 yds/att; expect 275-295 yds, 2-3 TDs and a top-10 QB1 finish.
The 2-7 Raiders field the league’s most permissive pass defense—32nd in third-down rate, 30th in completion % allowed and 30th in yards per pass attempt. Dallas’ bye-week rest and full complement of weapons (Lamb, Ferguson, Brooks) project to exploit a secondary that has already surrendered 16 TDs through the air. Maxx Crosby’s elite rush (8.5 sacks) is the lone blemish, but the Cowboys’ quick-game plan and Prescott’s 2.35-second time-to-throw should neutralize pressure.
Back-to-back 250-yard games, 70 % completions on the year and a season-best 34 rush yards last week show Prescott is rounding into his usual high-floor QB1 form.
Prescott’s 2025 résumé screams consistency: 258.6 passing yards per tilt, a 70 % completion rate and a 16:5 TD-INT ratio that ranks sixth in passer rating. The Week 8 hiccup (188 yds, 2 INT vs. Denver) looks like an outlier when stacked against six 250-plus yard outings and four multi-touchdown games. More importantly, he has responded to pressure with his legs, posting 87 rush yards and a score—35 of those coming on designed looks that Kellen Moore has increased since Week 7. The offensive line remains middle-of-the-pack in pressure rate, but Prescott’s 2.35-second average release minimizes negative plays and keeps chains moving against a Raiders defense that has allowed a 52 % third-down conversion rate.
Las Vegas enters Monday night dead last in opponent yards per pass attempt (8.2) and 29th in passing yards per game (254.4). Cornerbacks Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs have combined for only three pass-breakups in man coverage, while free safety Marcus Epps owns the third-worst PFF grade among starters. The Raiders’ single-high looks invite explosive plays; Dallas leads the NFL in 20-plus yard completions (34) and should feast on play-action crossers to CeeDee Lamb and deep posts to Jalen Brooks. Even if coordinator Patrick Graham rolls coverage, tight end Jake Ferguson faces a linebacker corps that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to TEs. The matchup projects as a ceiling game for the entire Dallas passing ecosystem.
The final verdict is straightforward: start Prescott as a top-five quarterback. The bye week afforded linemen Tyron Smith and Zack Martin extra rest to handle Crosby’s elite bend, and Prescott’s quick-rhythm attack nullifies the Raiders’ modest sack rate. Expect 275-295 yards, 2-3 touchdowns and a handful of rush attempts that pad the floor. In 1-QB leagues he’s a no-brainer; in 2-QB/Superflex formats he offers week-winning ceiling against a defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven of nine games. Fire him up with confidence on Monday Night Football.