Analyze Courtland Sutton's matchup for week 11
Sutton’s elite 13.3 YPR and 47 % red-zone share meet a Chiefs defense ranked 24th vs. WRs; after a Week 10 bracket-quieted 3-24, the 6'4" WR has a historical 6-70-1 line vs. KC and projects for 6-8 grabs, 85-105 yds and a score—lock him in as a top-15 play.
Kansas City allows 20.1 WR fantasy points per game (24th) and has surrendered 23 WR TDs (tied 5th-most). Corner Trent McDuffie excels vs. shifty types, not 6'4" contested-catch specialists; Sutton already hung 6-70-1 on nine targets in this matchup last season and owns a 47 % red-zone target share. With Denver needing to keep pace in a division shootout, the stage is set for Sutton to exploit size mismatches all afternoon.
Since Week 8 Sutton has three 100-yard games and averages 9 targets, posting career-best 81-1,081-8 numbers while playing every meaningful snap. A Week 10 bracket-heavy 3-24 dud was volume-driven (4 targets) and snaps were still 100 %.
The Broncos’ investment in Sutton is paying off as he’s become Bo Nix’s unquestioned go-to. His 13.3 YPR and 81 % catch rate over the past month reflect refined route craft and contested-ball dominance. Kansas City’s secondary lacks a big-bodied corner to match his 216-pound frame, and their Cover-3 looks leave the sidelines vulnerable on 50-50 balls—exactly where Sutton wins. Expect Shane Waldron to move him into stacks and bunch sets to free release vs. press, then attack the intermediate-to-deep out-breaking routes where Sutton has generated a 126.7 passer rating when targeted. Positive game script should keep Denver throwing, and his red-zone usage (47 % share) gives him a ceiling week. Regression hits hard after a quiet game, and the Chiefs’ 24th-ranked WR funnel plus historical production (6-70-1 in 2024 Week 10) make this the spot. Fire him up as a high-end WR2 with realistic WR1 ceiling in a pivotal AFC West clash.