Analyze Cooper Kupp's matchup for week 11
At 32 and now Seattle’s secondary WR behind JSN, Kupp is a two-target, one-catch lottery ticket who can still rip off a 67-yard score but offers no weekly floor; keep him on your bench unless bye-week desperation strikes.
Operating as the clear-cut WR2 behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a balanced Seahawks attack, Kupp has seen target counts of 2, 8 and 2 over the last three usable weeks, converting the lone deep look against Arizona into a 67-yard house call. That 24.2% target share from Week 2 looks like the outlier rather than the norm in an offense now built around Sam Darnold’s efficiency and a run-first approach. Without a plus matchup that projects shootout or soft slot coverage, his weekly ceiling lives and dies on one or two manufactured touches.
Two usable fantasy weeks all year—WR21 in Week 2 (7-90) and a spike-week WR40+ thanks to a single 67-yard catch in Week 10—sandwiching quiet games of 2-15, 3-24 and 2-22, highlighting a boom-or-bust profile with far more busts.
Kupp’s relocation to Seattle has crystallized what age and usage already suggested: the elite separator is still lethal when schemed into space, evidenced by the 3.46 YPRR he posted in Week 2, but that efficiency is meaningless without volume. The Seahawks’ shift toward a league-average pass rate and Smith-Njigba’s 28% target share leaves Kupp fighting for scraps behind a still-solid offensive line that prefers play-action shots to DK Metcalf. With red-zone looks trending toward the tight ends and a running game that finishes drives, Kupp’s path to fantasy usefulness is essentially a 50-yard deep cross or a broken-play screen going the distance—outcomes that can’t be projected with any confidence week to week. Unless your league starts four WRs or you’re ravaged by byes, the risk of another two-target floor outweighs the ceiling of the occasional 20-yard splash play, making him a clear sit in standard 12-team formats.