Analyze CJ Stroud's matchup for week 11
Concussion-protocol Stroud limps into Nashville on a three-game slide (13.3 FPPG) against a stingy Titans D that’s top-10 vs QBs and already has 148 sacks; sit him for any viable wire option.
Tennessee’s defense has held QBs to 18.5 fantasy points per game (10% below league average) while racking up 148 sacks and only four passing TDs allowed in eight home contests. Stroud, meanwhile, has seen his production drop 34% since Week 5 and must now rebound on the road behind a line that’s struggled against pressure-heavy looks.
Since his 28.8-point eruption vs Baltimore in Week 5, Stroud has cratered—626 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT and 13.3 FPPG over his last three, including a 4.4-point dud vs Denver before sitting Week 10 with a concussion.
The macro picture is ugly: a quarterback returning from a concussion, on a three-week regression slide, facing a top-10 QB defense that lives on sacks and has allowed the fourth-fewest air touchdowns. Stroud’s offensive line has quietly slipped to league-average in pass-block win rate, and the Titans’ multiple-front looks (featuring Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry) have produced pressure on 42% of opponent drop-backs over the last month. When pressured this year, Stroud’s completion percentage falls to 48% and his yards per attempt dips under 6.0, numbers that align with the 195-yard, one-score projection.
Nissan Stadium has been a house of horrors for opposing passers: Tennessee has surrendered just two top-15 weekly QB finishes in 2025, and both required 40-plus pass attempts plus garbage-time production. The Texans’ run-balanced game plan under Bobby Slowik keeps Stroud around 30 attempts per game, capping his volume ceiling even if the script stays neutral. With the Titans’ offense likely to lean on Derrick Henry and control tempo, shootout probability is low, further depressing Stroud’s chances of a spike week. In sum, every predictive angle—health, volume, efficiency, and game environment—points to a floor outcome rather than a ceiling.
Fantasy managers searching for a streamer should pivot to widely available options like Gardner Minshew (vs a bottom-five Cardinals secondary) or Derek Carr (home vs a banged-up Falcons pass D) who offer 18-plus point upside without the medical or matchup red flags. Even rookie quarterbacks in plus spots (C.J. Beathard vs Indy, Bryce Young vs TB) provide a safer statistical floor. Until Stroud proves his timing and pocket confidence are back—and until the schedule flips to softer secondaries like Carolina in Week 14—he belongs on benches across all one-QB formats.