Analyze Chuba Hubbard's matchup for week 11
Hubbard’s volume keeps him on the flex radar, but a middling Atlanta run defense that has allowed only three RB touchdowns and four 20-plus-yard runs all year caps both his floor and ceiling; he’s a low-upside, touchdown-dependent sit outside of deep or bye-crushed rosters.
Atlanta has been quietly stout against backs, surrendering 4.4 ypc and just three rushing scores while limiting explosive plays; Carolina’s offensive woes and game-script risk further depress Hubbard’s touch expectation to 15-ish carries and a couple of check-downs.
After a hot start, Hubbard’s efficiency has slipped—14.7 carries for 65.8 ypg over his last ten with YPC swinging from 3.1 to 6.1 and explosive runs drying up as defenses stack the box.
The tape shows Atlanta’s linebackers flowing well laterally and their safeties filling aggressively against outside-zone, a scheme Carolina leans on heavily. With the Panthers’ passing game ranked bottom-five in success rate, the Falcons have sold out to stop first-down runs, putting Hubbard into consistent second-and-long spots. Unless Carolina jumps ahead early—something they’ve done only twice all year—Hubbard’s projected 14–16 carries will come against a front that’s allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs since Week 5. Game script is the hidden killer: the Panthers have trailed at halftime in seven of nine games, forcing 60% second-half drop-backs and turning Hubbard into a pass-protector rather than a ball-carrier. Even inside the 10, where he’s scored five of his 10 TDs, Atlanta has allowed only four RB carries to cross the plane all season. Add in a 3.6-yard check-down average that limits receiving upside, and you’re left with a volume-dependent flex who needs a goal-line plunge to pay off—precisely the profile you bench when viable alternatives exist.