Analyze Chris Olave's matchup for week 11
Olave’s 104-yard, 1-TD eruption in Week 10 coincides with Rashid Shaheed’s departure, locking him into a 25-30% target share against a banged-up Cardinals secondary that’s allowed multiple WR1 touchdowns; fire him up as a high-upside WR2.
Arizona enters Week 11 ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and has struggled all year against primary wideouts while dealing with injuries across its cornerback room. With Shaheed no longer stealing coverage, Olave will see shadow attention from a depleted secondary that just gave up another WR1 score last week, setting up a down-field feast for the newly crowned Saints WR1.
After nine weeks of sub-100-yard frustration, Olave exploded for 5-104-1 on a season-best 62-yard touchdown versus Jaycee Horn, nearly doubling his previous yardage high and commanding 10 targets (31% share) in the first game without Shaheed.
The macro trend also favors a second-half surge. Historically, Olave’s yards-per-route-run jumps from 1.92 in September–October to 2.41 in November–December, and Shough’s passer rating on throws 15-plus air yards has climbed each week, from 55.5 in his debut to 118.7 last Sunday. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael hinted at deploying more 3×1 sets to force bracket coverage to declare, freeing Olave on the back side for double-moves and deep overs—concepts that gas Arizona’s split-field safeties. Finally, game script projects neutrally with a 45-point total and only a 2.5-point spread, ensuring New Orleans remains balanced rather than run-heavy if it grabs a lead. All told, Olave possesses both a 10-target floor and 150-plus-yard, 2-TD ceiling, making him a virtual lock for fantasy lineups and a buy-high DFS tournament pivot before his salary inevitably jumps into the WR1 tier.