Analyze Chirs Olave's matchup for week 11
With Rashid Shaheed gone, Olave is locked into 8-10 targets as the Saints’ undisputed WR1 against a Cardinals defense that’s allowed 14 WR touchdowns and multiple 100-yard games to primary receivers, making him a high-floor WR2 with WR1 upside.
Arizona enters Week 11 ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (149.8 yards per game, 14 TDs surrendered) and has shown a clear vulnerability to opposing WR1s. The Cardinals’ 12.1 Y/C allowed to the position pairs well with Olave’s 4.39 speed and elite route-running, while their middle-of-the-pack pass rush should give rookie QB Tyler Shough enough time to funnel 8-10 targets Olave’s way. On the other side, New Orleans’ 27th-ranked offense (295 yards, 16 points per game) keeps the ceiling in check, but game-script expectations project 35–38 pass attempts as home underdogs, locking Olave into a 25-30% target share with no legitimate target competition left on the roster.
Olave’s season-long 9.6 PPG line is misleading: a 1-catch, 13-yard dud in Week 9 dragged it down, but he popped for 8-107 in Week 8 and now owns a 26% target share since the Rashid Shaheed trade, signaling a volume rebound is imminent.
Volume is the lifeblood of fantasy receivers, and Olave suddenly has it in spades. Over the last two weeks Shaheed’s 17% target share has been redistributed, pushing Olave to a team-leading 26% share and a 95% route participation rate—numbers that historically translate to 8-10 looks per game regardless of opponent. Against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed five different WR1s to top 90 yards and has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers, that usage gives Olave a rock-solid 12-point PPR floor before factoring in touchdown equity. Add in his 4.39 speed and elite separation rate (third in the NFL in yards of separation per target) and you have a player whose talent can overcome below-average quarterback play, something he already proved in 2023 with a carousel of Andy Dalton and Derek Carr.
The offensive environment is ugly—New Orleans ranks 29th in scoring and 27th in total yards—but that actually funnels more opportunity to Olave. The Saints are 6.5-point home underdogs with a 40-point implied total, a script that historically produces 35–38 drop-backs for their quarterback. Even if rookie Tyler Shough is only league-average in accuracy, 26% of 37 attempts is 9.6 targets, and Olave converts targets at a 68% catch rate. That math pencils out to 6-7 receptions, and against a Cardinals defense allowing 12.1 Y/C, those grabs turn into 75-85 yards. Touchdown upside is the cherry on top: Arizona has surrendered 14 receiving scores to wideouts (tied for fifth-most) and uses man-coverage at the fifth-highest rate; Olave’s 119.9 passer rating vs man since 2022 is top-ten among WRs with 50+ such targets.
Bottom-line, this is a classic buy-low window. Olave’s 1.3-point dud in Week 9 will scare off casual managers, but the underlying usage is elite and the matchup is a 23rd-ranked funnel for fantasy points. Start him as a high-floor WR2 who carries legitimate WR1 upside if Shough can deliver even modestly accurate deep balls against a secondary that has already allowed six 40-yard completions to wide receivers this season.