Analyze Chimere Dike's matchup for week 11
Dike has become Cam Ward’s go-to target since Ridley’s injury, playing 87-88 % of snaps and averaging 8.3 looks a game. Jacksonville bleeds production to the slot (6th-most FPPG, 12 TDs allowed) and Tennessee’s 13.5-point underdog status guarantees garbage-time volume. Fire him up as a high-floor WR3 with TD upside.
The Jaguars look stout on paper (8th in total D) but have quietly been a slot-receiver funnel, ceding the 6th-most fantasy points to the position over the last month and 12 TDs to inside receivers this year. Dike runs 82 % of his routes from the slot, so he’ll avoid outside shadows like Tyson Campbell and work against zone-heavy looks that leave the intermediate middle exposed. On the other side, Jacksonville’s pass-rush (34 % pressure rate) versus Tennessee’s 31st-ranked O-line is ugly, but negative game script actually helps: the Titans have trailed by double-digits in seven straight games, leading to soft, prevent-style coverage that turned Dike into the league’s premier “garbage-time king.” Expect a steady diet of quick-hitters and screens that keep the clock moving and his PPR floor high.
Over the last three weeks Dike has played 87 % of snaps and compiled 11-163-1 plus a punt-return TD while seeing 8+ targets in two of those contests.
Chimere Dike’s emergence is the rare case where a rookie’s athletic profile (4.34 speed, 18.6 YPR college) meets perfect real-world opportunity. With Calvin Ridley nursing a hamstring and Tyler Lockett dealt away, Dike’s snap share jumped from 34 % in Week 7 to 88 % by Week 9. Operating primarily from the slot, he’s become Cam Ward’s security blanket, commanding 25 % of the team’s targets during this stretch and converting them at an 87 % clip on throws under 15 yards. That efficiency is sustainable because Tennessee’s offense is designed for quick, rhythmic passes to mitigate its sieve-like pass protection, and Dike’s route-running is advanced enough to find the soft spots in zone coverage.
The matchup with Jacksonville amplifies every strength in his profile. The Jaguars run a split-safety, zone-heavy scheme that funnels action to the middle of the field; they’ve allowed 12 TDs to slot receivers, third-most in the NFL, and rank 28th in yards per reception (13.4) to the position over the last month. Even if Josh Allen and Travon Walker wreck the pocket, Ward has shown he’ll get the ball out quickly to his first read—Dike—who averages 2.3 yards of separation per target, per Next Gen Stats. Because Tennessee is a two-touchdown underdog, the second-half script will likely feature hurry-up, spread sets that inflate target volume; Dike’s 11.0 expected PPR points in garbage time the past three weeks trails only A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb among WRs.
Bottom line: Dike has a locked-in 8-target floor, the Jaguars can’t defend the slot, and the Titans’ inevitable negative game script turns short catches into 15-20 PPR-point ceilings. In a week ravaged by byes, he’s a rare plug-and-play WR3 who doesn’t need a blown coverage or broken tackle to pay off—he just needs the clock to keep running, something Jacksonville has been happy to oblige all season.