Analyze Chase Brown's matchup for week 11
Brown’s 95%-snap breakout in Week 10 locks him in as a true three-down weapon; Pittsburgh is middling versus pass-catching backs, so fire him up as a high-floor, high-ceiling RB2.
The Steelers grade as a neutral 3-star RB matchup, but their recent leaks to receiving backs (52 yards to Brown in Week 10) and inconsistent early-down run fits play directly into Brown’s newfound every-down role. Pittsburgh’s pass rush could cap some early rushing volume, yet their nickel and dime packages have allowed the sixth-most RB receptions since Week 7.
After never topping 49 snaps in the first nine games, Brown logged 65-of-68 snaps in Week 10, turning 21 carries and a team-high 14 targets into 118 total yards and a score, cementing bell-cow status.
Brown’s leap from committee piece to offense-defining engine is the single most important data point for Week 11. Cincinnati’s willingness to keep him on the field for 95.6% of plays signals that they now view the 25-year-old as their answer in every situation—early down, hurry-up, red zone, and two-minute drill. That usage dwarfs efficiency concerns (2.1 YPC over the last two games) because the sheer volume creates a 20-touch floor with 25-touch upside. In a Steelers rematch, Pittsburgh will likely bracket Ja’Marr Chase and deploy Devin Bush and Patrick Queen in spy/sub roles on early downs, leaving the middle of the field vulnerable to backside option routes—exactly where Brown has done his damage. His 75 receiving yards in Week 10 were no fluke; he leads all Bengals in targets since Joe Flacco took over, and Flacco’s 6.2-yard average depth of target to RBs is fourth-highest among quarterbacks in that span. Even if the ground game sputters against Pittsburgh’s improved interior front, Brown’s target share keeps his PPR floor above 12 points. Add in red-zone carries that have produced scores in three of his last five contests, and you have a back who no longer needs efficiency to return RB1 value—he simply needs the field, and he now owns it.