Analyze Caleb Williams's matchup for week 11
Williams’ improved sack rate and dual-threat ability give him a shot at a top-15 finish, but Green Bay’s interior pressure and his own volatility keep him in low-end-QB2 territory—start only if you need ceiling in 2-QB/Superflex formats.
The Packers have been middling against QBs but exploitable by mobile passers, ranking in the bottom third for rushing yards allowed to the position. Green Bay’s interior rush (Devonte Wyatt, Karl Brooks) can still collapse pockets, yet they’ve surrendered chunk plays over the top all year. A division-game atmosphere and possible cold weather raise the variance, but Chicago’s healthier offensive line and Williams’ 28.7-yard rushing floor keep his ceiling alive.
After taking an NFL-high 68 sacks as a rookie, Williams has gone down only 14 times through nine 2025 starts and has a 20:6 TD:INT ratio; he’s posted five top-10 weekly finishes but also multiple single-digit duds, underlining his high-variance profile.
Caleb Williams’ sophomore season has been a tale of reduced chaos but persistent volatility. His completion rate has crept into the 60-65 % range, and he’s already scrambled for 258 yards (28.7 per game), providing a 4-point floor that traditional pocket passers lack. The Bears have simplified some read concepts, allowing him to get the ball out quicker and mitigate the disastrous pocket presence that plagued his rookie year. Even so, his aDOT remains aggressive (8.9 yards), and when the first read is covered he still drifts into sacks—Green Bay’s interior pressure could re-expose that habit. From a fantasy lens, Williams’ rushing usage keeps him alive in 2-QB and Superflex formats; he’s averaged 5.6 carries over his last four games, including goal-line sneaks that pad touchdown upside. The Packers allow 22.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (sixth-most) and have given up 183 rushing yards to quarterbacks alone, reinforcing Williams’ scramble-based ceiling. Game script also favors passing volume: Green Bay’s offense scores 25.8 PPG, forcing opponents into negative game flow where Williams will be slinging in the fourth quarter. Monitor weather—winds above 15 mph would downgrade the deep-ball upside, but current forecasts project 10-mph gusts, keeping the entire passing tree in play. Ultimately, Williams is a volatile QB2 whose rushing equity provides a 15-point floor and a 28-point ceiling; deploy him when you need swing-for-the-fences upside, but pivot to a safer floor-play if you’re protecting a lead or have a top-15 option available.