Analyze Cade Otton's matchup for week 11
Riding a five-game hot streak (29-319) and a 12-target Week 10, Otton steps into a Buffalo matchup that has surrendered the 7th-most TE yards while the Bucs are without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin; 6-8 targets and a safe PPR floor lock him in as a confident TE1.
Buffalo enters having allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season and just got gashed for 197 rushing yards by Miami, so expect added attention on the run and more room over the middle for Otton. With Evans (collarbone) and Godwin (fibula) still out, Tampa Bay is projected to throw early and often in a likely shootout, funneling targets to a player who has commanded 29 looks over his last three games.
After opening the year with a 6-34 line through four weeks, Otton has flipped the script with 29 receptions for 319 yards across his last five outings, posting 8-plus fantasy points in four straight and seeing 7-plus catches in two of his last three.
Otton’s transformation from waiver-wire fodder to every-week starter is one of 2025’s clearest breakouts. His chemistry with Baker Mayfield has turned him into the de-facto WR2 in an injury-depleted attack, evidenced by back-to-back 80-plus yard performances on 20 total targets the last two weeks. The underlying usage is elite for the position—he’s run a route on 82% of Mayfield’s drop-backs since Week 6 and leads the team in red-zone targets over that span—so even without a touchdown yet, the floor is rock-solid in full-PPR formats.
Buffalo’s defense has oscillated between dominant and vulnerable, but the Achilles’ heel has been athletic move tight ends who can win on crossers and option routes behind their aggressive linebackers. The Bills have allowed 12.9 YPR to TEs since Week 7 and just gave up 2 TDs to the position in their last home game. Expect Tampa Bay to exploit that with bunch and stack formations that isolate Otton on safeties Dane Jackson or converted LB Tyler Matakevich in coverage. If the game script tilts pass-heavy as anticipated, Otton should cruise past 50 yards with a strong probability of his first score, pushing him into the top-five weekly conversation.
Bottom line: volume plus matchup plus positional scarcity equals an easy green-light. Lock Otton into lineups as a mid-range TE1 with top-three upside in PPR leagues and ride the wave until Evans and Godwin return to siphon targets.