Analyze Brian Thomas Jr's matchup for week 11
Fresh off a one-game absence, Brian Thomas Jr. draws a dream matchup against a Chargers defense surrendering the 4th-most WR fantasy points (25.3 PPG) and 1.1 TDs per game to the position; with Trevor Lawrence back and a 25% target share when both play, fire up Thomas as a high-end WR1 with 7-98-1 upside.
Los Angeles’ perimeter corners have been a season-long funnel, ceding 13.2 YPR and 57% of WR fantasy production to outside wideouts—exactly where Thomas lines up. With Travis Hunter still on IR, Thomas projects for 8-12 targets against a defense that’s allowed 20 WR touchdowns (3rd-most) and 151 WR yards per game over its last six.
Through eight healthy games Thomas owns a 22% target share, 14.7 YPC and a 1,282-10 pace prorated to 17 contests; he averaged 9.4 looks per game with Lawrence active and now returns with rested wheels.
Brian Thomas Jr. steps into a perfect storm for Week 11. The Chargers’ secondary has been fantasy kryptonite all year, bleeding the fourth-most points to wide receivers and ranking bottom-five in yards per catch allowed outside. Thomas, who runs 75% of his routes on the perimeter, should see man-coverage looks from a corner group that’s given up 13.2 YPR and six 20-yard completions over the past month. With Trevor Lawrence back under center—he’s posted a 105.4 passer rating when targeting Thomas since 2024—the Jaguars’ passing game gets an instant ceiling lift. Expect offensive coordinator Press Taylor to feature Thomas early, especially on play-action deep crosses and red-zone fades where L.A. has allowed a league-high 20 WR touchdowns. Volume is secure: Travis Hunter remains on IR and the next-closest wideout (Parker Washington) averages 5.3 targets per game. Even coming off a low-grade high-ankle sprain, Thomas has had nearly three weeks to heal and practiced in full by Thursday. The injury actually works in fantasy managers’ favor—he’ll be on snap counts in name only while opposing corners have logged 92% of defensive snaps over the last month. Projecting 8-10 targets, Thomas offers both a rock-solid 15-point PPR floor and a 30-point ceiling if he hits one of the 40-yard vertical shots the Chargers have surrendered once per game. Unless your roster is littered with top-seven WR options, leaving him on your bench would be leaving points—and potentially a league-winning week—on the table.