Analyze Breece Hall's matchup for week 11
Breece Hall has rediscovered his RB1 form with four touchdowns in his last three games and a season-high 92 % snap share; the Patriots’ bottom-tier run defense and poor tackling make him a locked-in, high-ceiling start for Week 11.
New England has hemorrhaged 540 rushing yards through seven games and ranks in the league’s bottom third in missed-tackle rate, creating an ideal runway for Hall’s elite juke rate (25.8 %) and 3.90 yards-created-per-touch. Thursday-night’s short-preparation environment historically favors ground attacks, and the Jets will lean on Hall to control tempo and keep their defense rested.
Hall has scored in three straight, handled 21 carries and a season-high 92 % of snaps last week, and leads all RBs in explosive-run rate over the past month.
The most striking development is the complete reversal in usage: after a committee approach early, Hall has commanded 20-plus touches in two of his last three games while averaging 4.5 targets per contest, giving him a rock-solid PPR floor independent of game script. His efficiency has spiked in lockstep—he’s now top-15 in missed-tackle rate and No. 1 in explosive-run rate—proving the early-season offensive-line issues were more anomaly than fatal flaw. Against a Patriots front that has already conceded seven rushing touchdowns and regularly loses gap integrity, Hall’s combination of patience, burst and receiving ability projects to 20-plus touches and multiple red-zone opportunities. Even if the Jets fall behind, his 4.5-target average over the last month supplies a safe 10-point baseline, while positive game-script could push him toward 25-plus PPR points.