Analyze Bijan Robinson's matchup for week 11
Robinson is a volume-locked FLEX with a safe 13-touch floor, but Tyler Allgeier’s red-zone monopoly keeps the lid on upside; start him only if your alternatives are RB3 types.
Carolina’s run defense has tightened since Week 3, slipping to 16th in YPC allowed, yet Robinson’s career 5.5 YPC and five touchdowns in five meetings against this front still carry weight. The Falcons’ banged-up line and Allgeier’s six inside-the-five vultures limit Bijan’s ceiling, but 15–20 touches are locked in, giving him a 10–15-point PPR floor.
Four-game TD drought and declining YPC (8.9 ➜ 2.9 ➜ 2.8 ➜ 3.8 ➜ 4.9) while Allgeier steals goal-line work.
Bijan’s elite talent is being neutered by Arthur Smith’s stubborn commitment to Tyler Allgeier inside the 5-yard line; six of Atlanta’s eight goal-line carries over the last month have gone to the backup, turning what should be RB1 weeks into low-ceiling FLEX outings. The offensive line, already middling, has regressed—per PFF, Atlanta’s run-blocking grade has dropped from 12th in Week 6 to 24th entering Week 11, explaining the steady erosion in yards-before-contact (2.3 ➜ 0.9). Against Carolina, the matchup is technically neutral—Panthers are 16th in rushing success rate and have allowed only one 100-yard rusher since Week 5—but division familiarity helps: Robinson’s 5.5 YPC versus Carolina is his best against any opponent, and the Panthers’ linebackers still overrun stretch plays, a vulnerability Bijan exploited for 38 of his 72 Week 3 yards on outside zone concepts. Expect 15–18 carries and 4–5 targets, but unless the game script flips Atlanta into hurry-up (which has paradoxically favored Allgeier on passing downs), the touchdown probability remains under 25 %. That keeps Robinson in the RB2/FLEX dead zone: safe enough to avoid a goose-egg, not explosive enough to swing a playoff-berth week without an outlier play or a long-overdue goal-line reversal. Adjust expectations to 80 total yards and pray the coaching staff remembers who their first-round pick is.