Analyze Ashton Jeanty's matchup for week 11
Jeanty has morphed from early-season afterthought to every-down workhorse, forcing 46 missed tackles (3rd-most in NFL) while logging 90 % snap shares and goal-line work; Dallas ranks 6th-easiest for RBs and bleeds production to pass-catching backs, making the rookie a locked-in RB1 this week.
Dallas enters Monday night ranked 26th in run-defense DVOA and has surrendered the 6th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to backs, including 8 TDs and the 4th-most receptions to the position. The Cowboys’ linebackers have struggled with tackling (108 missed through Week 9) and have allowed 1.95 yards per route covered to receiving backs—perfect for Jeanty, who’s seen 10 targets the past two weeks and just set a career-high with 71 YAC. With Jakobi Meyers gone, Las Vegas is funneling 45 % of its touches through Jeanty, giving him both the volume and matchup to exploit a Dallas front that just lost run-stuffing NT Johnathan Hankins.
Since Week 4 the rookie has averaged 21 touches, forced 3.7 missed tackles per game, and handled 100 % of the two-minute offense; his snap share has climbed four straight weeks, culminating in 90 % in Week 9 and back-to-back 5-catch performances.
The narrative around Ashton Jeanty flipped the moment he ripped off a 64-yard house call against Chicago in Week 4; since then he’s been the engine of a stripped-down Raiders offense that’s willingly leaned on a sixth overall pick who profiles as the modern three-down prototype. At 5-9, 215 lbs, Jeanty runs with absurd contact balance—his 46 evaded tackles on 138 touches (33 % evasion rate) trails only Jahmyr Gibbs and Kyren Williams among backs with 120-plus touches—and Las Vegas has responded by making him the lone constant in an otherwise flux-filled skill group. The trade of Meyers condensed targets toward the backfield, and Jeanty’s 10 looks the past two weeks coincide with a career-best 2.31 yards per route, per PFF. That receiving surge matters against Dallas, which has allowed the fifth-most receiving fantasy points to RBs and just watched Bijan Robinson post 6-51-1 through the air. Jeanty’s 4.48 speed and elite jump-cut ability stress second-level defenders who have already missed 108 tackles this year, and the loss of Hankins leaves 37-year-old Linval Joseph and undersized Osa Odighizuwa to hold A-gaps—an iffy proposition against a back who converted all three of his goal-line carries in Week 9. The Raiders’ offensive line, quietly sixth in adjusted line yards the past month, should create creases, while the game-script safety of a Monday-night home affair keeps the rookie involved even if Las Vegas falls behind. Expect another 20-touch floor, a 65 % shot at a touchdown, and the sort of ceiling that produced 138 rushing yards against Chicago; anything short of top-12 RB numbers would be a disappointment given the matchup, usage, and recent form.