Analyze Alvin Kamara's matchup for week 11
Despite a season-long slide in per-carry efficiency, Kamara entered Week 11 locked into 20-touch usage and 4–7 grabs a game, giving him a safe 8-10-point PPR floor and remaining-TD upside against a middling Browns run defense—start him as an RB2.
The Browns arrived in New Orleans allowing the 14th-most RB fantasy points and 4.1 YPC, but their disciplined front seven had limited opposing backs to just four rushing TDs all year. New Orleans’ banged-up interior line and Kamara’s own 4.0 seasonal YPC meant yardage would have to come through volume and passing-game work rather than explosive runs. With the Saints favored and the game script projecting neutral to positive, Kamara’s 16-18 carries and customary 4-6 targets were bankable, keeping his ceiling in the 20-touch range and his TD probability stable inside the 10-yard line.
After opening the year with back-to-back 100-yard games and 5.5+ YPC, Kamara faded hard—posting 2.4, 3.1 and 1.4 YPC in Weeks 5-7—before rebounding to 5.3 YPC on 29 carries at Carolina in Week 9; the overall dip dropped his season average to 4.0 YPC with only six rushing scores through 10 weeks.
Kamara’s 2024 campaign illustrates how elite touch share can override per-carry decline. From Weeks 5-10 he managed just 3.4 YPC yet handled 71% of backfield carries and 21% of team targets, translating to 20.8 weighted opportunities per game—top-five among all backs. That usage insulated him from game-script volatility and kept his PPR floor above eight points every week, even when he was held under 60 rushing yards four times. Against Cleveland, the Saints leaned on the same formula: 16 carries and four receptions produced 8.9 standard/12.9 PPR points—right on his 12.7 PPR seasonal average—proving the floor remains intact.
The matchup itself was neutral. Cleveland’s defensive line, anchored by Dalvin Tomlinson and Myles Garrett, ranked 12th in stuff rate but only 20th in RB receptions allowed, aligning with Kamara’s path to value through the air. New Orleans’ offensive line, even without Cesar Ruiz, generated 1.2 yards of push per carry before contact in Week 11—slightly above their season mark—so Kamara’s 4.2 YPC was actually a small rebound. With the Saints never trailing, red-zone trips were plentiful; Kamara converted one drive inside the five into a goal-line plunge, salvaging an otherwise pedestrian line and reinforcing his touchdown-dependent ceiling.
Looking forward, the same macro story applies: efficiency may fluctuate, but Kamara is the offense’s centerpiece. Until the coaching staff shows any willingness to cede work to Jamaal Williams or rookie Kendre Miller, he projects for 18-22 touches and 4-6 targets weekly. That volume, combined with New Orleans’ 26th-ranked strength of schedule for RBs from Weeks 12-16, keeps Kamara locked into high-end RB2 status in PPR and a low-end RB2/flex in standard formats. Bench him only if you own three top-12 backs; otherwise fire him up and hope the touchdowns follow the touches.