Analyze Alec Pierce's matchup for week 11
Pierce leads the NFL with 22.3 yards per catch and a 29.5% target share vs single-high looks; after the Week 11 bye he draws KC, HOU, JAX, all top-12 in single-high rate, making him a must-stash who could win leagues.
The Colts’ third-year burner is averaging 21.1 YPR over his last four games and faces a remaining slate that uses single-high coverage on 65% of snaps (KC 68%, HOU 65%, JAX 62%). Only Seattle in Week 16 deviates, setting up multiple spike weeks during the fantasy playoffs.
17-358-2 the past month, 26.9% target share vs single-high (highest in NFL), 4.33 yards per route run in those looks.
Pierce’s 22.3 yards-per-reception pace is more than a full yard clear of any other qualifier, and the underlying usage backs it up: 21.4-yard average depth of target, 33.3% first-read share and a 29.5% target share when defenses roll to single-high. That coverage look is exactly what Kansas City, Houston and Jacksonville lean on, so the schedule aligns with his elite skill set. Daniel Jones has now targeted Pierce 7-plus times in three straight games and the Colts’ offense is willing to live with the volatility because the chunk plays are winning drives. Even on a bye, Pierce’s rest-of-season ceiling is as high as any WR3/flex because one 60-yard TD flips a week. Managers who can afford the bench spot should treat him like a lottery ticket that already hit once and is about to be scratched again in three consecutive plus matchups.