Analyze Aj Barner's matchup for week 11
Barner’s 21-236-4 line is buoyed by a 19% TD rate; with zero catches last week and a Rams defense that’s 14th vs. TE, the second-year Seahawk is a boom-or-bust sit outside of desperate 14-team leagues.
The Rams sit 14th in TE fantasy points allowed (14.7/g) on 50-431-5, a neutral draw that neither boosts nor suppresses Barner’s already shaky floor. Los Angeles has tightened up recently—just one TE score since Week 6—and Barner’s 85% snap rate hasn’t translated to steady volume, seeing 3 or fewer targets in six of nine games. Unless he finds pay-dirt, repeating his zero-catch Week 10 is within range of outcomes.
After a career-best 7-53-2 in Week 5, Barner has averaged 2.3 grabs and 5.4 ypg the last four weeks, including last week’s donut, cementing his profile as a touchdown-or-bust TE2.
Barner’s 2025 efficiency looks shiny—four touchdowns on 21 receptions—but elite red-zone usage masks a 2.4-target-per-game floor that renders him nearly unstartable in standard 10- and 12-team formats. The Rams’ defense isn’t a cakewalk (only five TE touchdowns allowed), and Seattle’s passing pie is crowded with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and a running game that leads the league in rushing TDs. Even at 85% snaps, Barner has run a route on just 58% of drop-backs over the last month, a number that limits his ceiling unless play-calling specifically manufactures goal-line looks. With Sam Darnold posting a sub-60% completion rate to tight ends over his last three starts, the probability of multiple scoring opportunities shrinks, turning Barner into a lottery ticket whose most likely outcome is a single-digit fantasy day without a touchdown. Bench him for any top-15 option and pivot to higher-floor streamers like Kmet, Kincaid, or Njoku if available.