Analyze Aaron Rodgers's matchup for week 11
Rodgers’ 41-year-old arm has cratered since his 4-TD opener, posting a 50.6 rating with 2 INTs last week; the 3-6 Bengals are exploitable, but the turnovers and a shaky line make him a risky QB2 with a 12-16-point ceiling.
Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point home favorite against a Cincinnati defense that ranks bottom-third in most metrics and is missing key pieces in the secondary. The Bengals have generated only six interceptions all year and have allowed multiple 250-yard passers over the last month. Rodgers will have Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and a healthier Pat Freiermuth at his disposal, and the Steelers’ coaching staff has hinted at a quicker-timing script to neutralize the Bengals’ interior pressure packages. On paper, it’s a get-right spot for a 41-year-old quarterback who tormented Cincinnati for years in Green Bay.
Since Week 1’s 244-yard, 4-TD gem, Rodgers has cratered: 5 TDs, 8 INTs and a 69.8 passer rating across his last five full games, plus a safety on a sack last Sunday night.
The cliff has arrived faster than expected. After a pristine opener, Rodgers’ processing speed has looked every bit his 41 years—he’s holding the ball 2.96 seconds per drop-back (ninth-slowest) and his 6.4 air-yards-per-attempt over the last month is the NFL’s fourth-lowest. Cincinnati’s defense is charitable, but they still rank eighth in quick-pressure rate; if Pittsburgh’s reshuffled line (rookie C Dylan Cook, injured LG Isaac Seumalo) allows free runners the way it did vs. Joey Bosa & Co., the same forced throws and late-hit penalties will follow. Expect Matt Canada to lean on motion and 12-personnel to get the ball out before the Bengals’ three-man rush can collapse the pocket, but that caps upside—Rodgers has averaged just 11.1 fantasy points when throwing fewer than 35 passes this year.
Game script actually favors a rebound. The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites, so Pittsburgh should stay balanced; Najee Harris’ resurgence (4.7 YPC last three weeks) keeps third-and-manageable, and Rodgers has historically diced Cincinnati’s Cover-3 looks from under-center play-action (108.3 rating since 2021). The Bengars have allowed 7.9 YPA on play-action this season (sixth-worst) and are down both starting safeties. If Rodgers can simply avoid the pre-snap confusion that led to last week’s pick-six, a 2-TD, 220-yard floor is within reach.
Bottom line: the matchup is soft, but the player is broken right now. In single-QB redraft you can stream Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew or even Derek Carr off waivers for a safer 14-17-point projection. Only deploy Rodgers in two-QB/Superflex where his ceiling still sits around 22-24 if he strings together completions and falls into the end zone twice.