Analyze Aaron Jones's matchup for week 11
Jones gets the league’s softest run defense (27th-ranked Bears, 4.8 YPC allowed), yet his 11.4-touch average and lingering shoulder injury limit his ceiling to desperation-FLEX territory.
Chicago’s front seven has been a lay-up for backs all year—allowing 136.3 rushing yards per game and the most rushing scores in 2024—so the on-paper matchup is elite. The problem is Minnesota’s committee approach: Kevin O’Connell has capped Jones at 9–12 touches in four straight weeks while splitting work with Jordan Mason, turning a smash spot into a volume-dependent dice roll.
Efficiency is still there (5.1 YPC on the season, 5.2 in Week 10), but touches have fallen off a cliff—27 carries total through five games and only one outing above 12 carries.
The Bears’ run defense is historically charitable, ranking 27th in yards per game and 30th in yards per carry allowed, and Jones has torched division foes before. However, the 30-year-old’s usage has cratered—he’s seen a 35 % snap share since Week 6 and finished Week 10 with a season-low nine carries despite ripping off 5.2 YPC on the opening drive. O’Connell’s public commitment to a 1A/1B backfield and Jones’ questionable shoulder tag suggest the Vikings will continue prioritizing health and rotation over volume. Even in a game Minnesota could control, a 10-touch projection caps Jones’ ceiling in the 8-12-point range; the floor is a single-digit dud if game script flips or Mason vultures goal-line work. Unless you’re in a 14-team league or ravaged by byes, safer options with 15-plus touch roles are preferable.