Analyze Zay Flowers's matchup for week 10
Flowers has a 29% target share and five straight 5-catch games; the Vikings’ two-high, zone-heavy look is slot-friendly and allows 18.8 WR FPPG, making him a locked-in WR2 with WR1 spike potential this week.
Minnesota runs the league’s highest rate of two-high shells (69%), ceding 6.3 YAC on short-to-intermediate throws and seven WR TDs already. Flowers, who aligns in the slot 56% of the time and averages 6.3 YAC himself, should see free releases and room to run. The Vikings’ 23rd-ranked WR defense (18.8 FPPG) has struggled most against shifty separators, a direct match for the 2nd-year Raven’s after-the-catch juice.
Since Week 5 Flowers owns a 29% target share and 2.41 YPRR; he’s rattled off five consecutive games of 5-plus catches, pacing Baltimore in every major receiving category in the two full games Lamar Jackson has played.
Volume and role are no longer in question—Flowers’ 29% target share sits just behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyreek Hill, and his 5.8 grabs per game over the last five weeks are bankable in PPR formats. The chemistry with a healthy Lamar Jackson is equally decisive: in their three complete 2025 contests the duo has connected 19 times on 26 looks (73% catch rate) for 284 yards and a score, transforming Baltimore from a 16.7-point offense into a 24.3-point unit. That efficiency spike is sustainable because offensive coordinator Todd Monken is finally letting Jackson attack the middle of the field on early downs, the exact area Flowers dominates (81% of his receptions come between the numbers). Against a Minnesota defense that refuses to spin its safeties down, those 12-15-yard crossers and option routes become free yards, setting up Flowers’ 85th-percentile YAC ability. Add in game-script upside—the 2-5 Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites in a must-win spot—and the ceiling grows; the Vikings have allowed 40+ pass attempts in three of their last four when playing with a lead, a scenario that should funnel even more looks to the clear WR1. Finally, red-zone usage is quietly trending up—Flowers has seen five end-zone targets in the last four weeks after seeing just two in the first four games. All arrows point to a 20-touch, 100-yard, multi-TD ceiling week that could swing playoff races.