Analyze Zach Ertz's matchup for week 10
Ertz is a low-end TE1 for Week 10: six-target floor, plus Detroit’s middle-of-the-pack TE defense and Washington’s injury-depleted WR room equal steady PPR value, but drops and lack of splash plays cap the ceiling.
The Lions have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to tight ends and just gave up 6-59 to Taysom Hill’s hybrid role last week; Washington is expected to throw 60% of snaps while playing from behind, and with McLaurin questionable (quad) Ertz projects as the primary short-area outlet for Jayden Daniels. Detroit runs two-high at the 8th-highest rate, funneling underneath looks to the TE, and their linebackers have missed 17% of tackles—boosting Ertz’s 4-38-0 baseline into the 10-point PPR range.
Six targets in three straight games, 9.1 YPC, but five drops already (career-high pace); still pacing for 95 targets, a 28% share since Week 6.
Ertz’s 2025 usage is the definition of boringly bankable: he’s run 82% of his routes at under 10 air-yard depth, converting 22 of 30 catchable balls into first downs and keeping drives alive on 3rd-and-medium. The Commanders’ pass-protection woes (27th in PBWR) actually help him—Daniels’ average time-to-throw is 2.35s, quickest among starters, and Ertz’s 1.84s route time fits that rhythm. Against Detroit’s cover-2 shell he’ll sit down between the hashes where the Lions have yielded 72% of TE receptions; only the Giants have allowed more 6- to 10-yard completions to the position. The rub is athletic decline: Ertz’s 4.3 YAC per reception ranks 39th/42 qualifying TEs, so unless he falls into the end zone (zero red-zone looks inside the 5 this year) you’re chasing a 9- to 11-point PPR floor rather than a spike week. Still, in a season where only five tight ends have topped 15 points more than twice, that floor is start-worthy during byes and is exactly the kind of quiet 4-40 line that keeps head-to-head lineups afloat. Expect 4-5 catches, 35-45 yards, and a 25% chance of a short TD—good enough for a back-end TE1 finish.