Analyze Zach Charbonnet's matchup for week 10
Charbonnet’s 2.8 YPC is league-worst, but he owns every Seattle carry inside the 5 and faces a middling Cardinals run D, keeping him a touchdown-dependent, low-end RB2/flex who needs pay-dirt to return value.
Arizona allows the 21st-most schedule-adjusted RB points (4.4 YPC, 4 rush TDs in 8 games) and Seattle projects as home favorites, so a balanced script should keep carries flowing. The Cardinals’ mediocre front seven rarely blows games open, creating a neutral-to-favorable environment for Charbonnet’s goal-line role even while the timeshare with Kenneth Walker caps volume.
Eight touchdowns salvage a season that ranks dead-last in YPC (2.8) and 2nd-worst in stuff rate (29%); he’s averaged 8.7 carries for 25 yards over the last three weeks and has been out-snapped by Walker in every healthy game.
Charbonnet’s 2024 profile is the textbook definition of touchdown-or-bust. His nine inside-the-five carries (5th-most among RBs) give him a floor of six fantasy points any given week, yet his 2.8-yard average and league-high stuff rate illustrate a back who creates little on his own. The offensive line’s inability to generate push compounds the problem, meaning most positive plays come from scheme or defensive busts rather than individual juice. Still, the Cardinals concede 4.4 yards per carry, have no dominant interior penetrator, and just traded away slot safety Jalen Thompson, loosening run-fit integrity. In a projected one-score game, Seattle should stay committed enough for 12–15 touches, and Charbonnet’s monopoly on goal-line work keeps double-digit touchdown odds alive. Treat him as a volatile RB2 whose ceiling hinges on finding the paint; if he fails to score, a 5–7-point dud is in play, but the alternative on most rosters offers even less upside. Start him and hope the GL magic continues, but understand you’re rostering a role player, not a difference-maker.