Analyze Xavier Worthy's matchup for week 10
Worthy is on bye Week 10, but his target share (4→7) and deep looks (0→3) are rising; after the extra prep time he’s a boom-or-bust flex against a Denver defense that’s allowed big plays all year.
The Chiefs come off their bye to face a Broncos secondary that’s been torched vertically all season. Denver’s outside corners have allowed the eighth-most 20-plus-yard completions and a 112.3 passer rating on deep balls. Worthy’s 4.21 speed and recent usage—three deep targets in Week 8 after zero in Week 7—sets up perfectly for shot plays at altitude. With Rashee Rice commanding bracket coverage underneath, Worthy should see mostly single-high looks that let him win on post and go routes. The extra rest week also gives Andy Reid time to install specific motions and stacks to free Worthy at the line, something they’ve done historically after byes (Mahomes averages 9.2 YPA in first game back from bye since 2018).
Three-week climb: routes 30→35, targets 4→7, deep targets 0→3, culminating in 5-61 on seven looks versus Buffalo before the bye.
The arrow is pointing sharply up for the rookie burner. Since Week 7 Worthy’s snap share has jumped from 54% to 71%, and his average depth of target has ballooned to 15.4 yards, tops among KC wideouts. More importantly, Patrick Mahomes is finally letting it rip to him—Worthy’s seven targets in Week 8 were a career high, and the three deep shots equaled the total from his previous four games combined. That trust should carry forward; Reid historically uses the bye to deepen the playbook for speedsters (see Mecole Hardman’s post-bye explosions in 2020-22). Denver’s scheme compounds the upside. Coordinator Vance Joseph loves Cover-3 and Cover-1 blitz packages that leave corners on islands. Worthy’s 4.21 jets translate to 2.3 yards of separation on go routes per Next Gen Stats, and CBs Levi Wallace and Riley Moss have collectively allowed 6 TDs on passes 20-plus air yards. Factor in the thin air adding 5-7 yards to deep balls and Worthy has legitimate 80-yard-TD upside. The floor is still low—he’s yet to top 61 yards and is third on the team in red-zone looks—but the combination of usage trend, matchup, and coaching prep gives him a better-than-50% chance of posting a top-36 WR week. Treat him as a high-variance WR4 with league-winning spike potential.