Analyze Woody Marks's matchup for week 10
Sit Woody Marks in Week 10. A shrinking role, atrocious efficiency, and a top-five run defense make him a near-lock for another single-digit fantasy day; stream almost anyone else.
The Lions’ run defense has quietly morphed into one of the league’s stingiest units, surrendering just 88 rushing yards per game over the last month while ranking third in missed-tackle rate (7%). Anchored by Alim McNeill and Aidan Hutchinson up front, Detroit limits explosive runs (only five rushes of 15+ yards allowed) and swarms to the football, exactly the kind of disciplined, physical style that exposes a non-elusive back like Marks. On the opposite sideline, Houston’s offensive line ranks 27th in adjusted line yards, meaning Marks won’t get the benefit of pre-contact room; he’ll need to create yards himself, something he’s failed to do all season.
Marks’ production has fallen off a cliff, registering single-digit PPR points in three straight games and bottoming out at 2.7 in Week 9. His receiving usage—once his clearest path to relevance—has vanished, seeing only four targets over the last four contests while playing fewer than 30% of snaps in negative game scripts.
Woody Marks has entered a critical phase of his rookie season where every touch is scrutinized, and the numbers are shouting “stay away.” After logging a paltry 2.7 PPR points in Week 9, his seasonal momentum has cratered. The Texans envisioned Marks as a change-of-pace, pass-catching complement, but that role has evaporated: targets have dried up, snaps have dipped below 30% in two of the last three games, and he’s yet to see a single carry inside the five-yard line. Advanced metrics back the eye test—his 0.9 yards after contact per attempt ranks in the bottom five among backs with 40+ touches, and he’s forced only three missed tackles on the season. When an athlete whose college selling point was burst and receiving versatility can’t create yards on his own or earn designed looks, his fantasy floor becomes sub-5 points every week.
The situation gets bleaker against Detroit. The Lions play a penetrating 4-2-5 front that funnels runs to linebackers Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone, who’ve combined for 21 run stops and only five missed tackles since Week 6. Detroit’s 3.6 yards per carry allowed is fifth-best, but more telling is their 27% rushing success-rate against (fifth-lowest), meaning even modest gains are hard to come by. Marks’ lack of contact balance plays directly into that strength; if he can’t shake NFL-level tackling in space, he’ll be staring at second-and-9 all afternoon. Houston’s offensive line is also banged up—left guard Kenyon Green is out and right tackle Tytus Howard is questionable—so creases will be narrower than usual. Expect a lot of early-down stuffs that push the Texans into obvious passing situations, ceding snaps to pass-protecting backs like Dare Ogunbowale rather than Marks.
Usage trends indicate he’s the third wheel in a frustrating committee. Nick Chubb handled 65% of early-down work last week and all four red-zone carries inside the 10. Even in negative game-script, Marks played only 22% of third-down snaps. With a 24.5-point implied team total (fifth-lowest of Week 10) and Detroit favored by 7.5, game flow projects for another pass-heavy, comeback script that will leave Marks watching from the sideline. All arrows point to a sub-10-touch, sub-30-yard ceiling with zero touchdown upside—essentially a prayer for a 10-yard check-down that nets you three fantasy points. In 12-team leagues with even moderate bench depth, replacement-level backs like Ty Chandler, Tyjae Spears, or a goal-line vulture such as Jordan Wilkins offer higher probability touch counts and touchdown equity.