Analyze Tyler Warren's matchup for week 10
Tyler Warren draws a Falcons defense that ranks 24th vs. TEs (653 yds, 4 TDs allowed) and is averaging 6.8 targets/70+ yds over his last four; fire him up as a low-end TE1 with touchdown upside.
Atlanta has surrendered 55-653-4 to tight ends this year and struggles most against athletic, field-stretching threats—exactly the 6'6" Warren profile. Indianapolis has fed him 27 targets through four games (13.8 YPC) and will keep him moving the chains and attacking the Falcons’ LB/safety mismatches in the middle of the field.
Warren has 19-263-0 receiving plus a goal-line rushing score over four games; the 6.8 targets and 70-plus yards in three of four show a locked-in weekly floor for a rookie.
Volume is king at tight end and Warren has it: 27 targets in four starts, translating to a 21% team share that rivals top-12 producers at the position. His 13.8 yards-per-catch mark is top-five among TEs with 15-plus grabs, proving the Colts are using him vertically instead of as a short-area blocker. Against Atlanta’s Cover-3 looks, expect Shane Steichen to deploy Warren on seam routes and play-action crossers behind the linebackers—areas where Atlanta has allowed 11.9 YPT to TEs. Positive game script at home should keep Indianapolis in 11-personnel, and Warren has played 78% of snaps the last two weeks, so red-zone opps will be there; the Falcons have already conceded four TE touchdowns and struggle with 50-50 ball winners. The rookie’s TD regression is coming—this matchup is the spot. Plug him in as a solid TE1 with 75-yard, one-score upside.