Analyze Tyler Allgeier's matchup for week 10
Allgeier has become an after-touchdown-or-bust bench stash who saw a season-low 2 touches in Week 9 and now faces a top-10 Colts run D; keep him glued to your bench.
Atlanta’s trip to Berlin pits a spiraling Allgeier against Indianapolis’ 9th-ranked run defense (93.1 yds/gm) that funnels production to lead backs and smothers change-of-pace backs. The Colts control games with Jonathan Taylor, shrinking Atlanta’s rushing windows, while the early 9:30 AM ET kickoff won’t shake Bijan Robinson’s bell-cow grip. Allgeier’s goal-line and between-the-20s work have dried up, so even a neutral or negative script offers no path to volume.
A free-fall: four total TDs through Week 8 masked 3.4 YPC, but his Week 9 line (2-6-0) was a season-worst touch count and confirms he’s now a pure handcuff.
Tyler Allgeier’s fantasy stock has cratered because the Falcons no longer need him. Arthur Smith’s early-season commitment to a 60/40 split has flipped to Bijan-or-bust; Allgeier hasn’t topped 6 carries since Week 5 and played fewer than 15% of snaps in three of the last four games. Without red-zone opps, his profile is empty—he’s averaging 0.75 yards per route run and has seen only three targets inside the 20 all year. Indianapolis compounds the problem: they allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs, surrendering just 0.77 rushing TDs per game and only one to a backup since Week 3. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart swallow interior gaps, forcing outside runs where Allgeier’s 4.01 speed isn’t explosive enough to punish linebackers. Even if the game stays close on a neutral field in Munich, Atlanta’s implied total (20.5) is a team-low for 2023, shrinking touchdown probability for anyone not named Robinson. Finally, the trans-Atlantic travel and early kick historically depress offensive snaps by 3-5%, and those lost plays always come from the secondary RB first. Until injury or a coaching pivot resurrects his touch share, Allgeier is an inert roster spot in 10- and 12-team leagues and an easy sit in Week 10.