Analyze Trevor Lawrence's matchup for week 10
Lawrence is questionable with a shoulder injury that has zapped practice reps and caps both passing and rushing upside; Minnesota’s top-five blitz rate targets that weakness, so he’s a sit outside of 2QB/Superflex formats.
The Vikings have allowed the 12th-fewest QB fantasy points (15.1/gm) while generating the 5th-highest blitz rate (38%) and 11th-highest pressure rate (34%). Lawrence ranks 5th-worst in bad-throw percentage versus the blitz and 3rd-worst in passer rating against Cover-3, the shell Brian Flores uses most. Indoors weather won’t help the matchup, and red-zone defense that allows only a 52% TD rate further trims his rushing-TD ceiling.
Volume has kept him relevant—245 pass YPG (9th), 11 TD/7 INT, 3 rush TD—but three sub-12-point duds and the Week-9 shoulder stoppage have him trending down entering a short week.
Lawrence’s 2025 profile is the definition of high-volume, low-efficiency volatility: 42, 40 and 38 pass attempts in October produced usable weeks, yet the 11-7 TD-INT ratio and 18.8% bad-throw rate versus the blitz scream regression. The shoulder injury compounds those accuracy issues because driving the ball and absorbing hits become questionable propositions; one early shot could lead to an in-game benching or re-injury. Minnesota’s pass rush isn’t elite, but Flores’ tendency to rush five or six on third down has produced a 34% pressure rate that lands in the range where Lawrence’s completion percentage drops nearly 10 points from his clean-pocket baseline. The Vikings’ slot corners have also allowed the 7th-lowest yards per snap inside, neutralizing Lawrence’s preferred short-area answers and forcing more vertical attempts into Cover-3 where his 78.4 rating is bottom-three. Add in the likelihood of game-script that leans on Travis Etienne if Jacksonville grabs a lead, and the path to 20-plus fantasy points requires a 300-yard, multiple-TD outlier that is far harder to hit with compromised arm strength. Finally, backup Mac Jones is averaging 6.2 YPA with a 3:5 TD-INT this year; if Lawrence suffers a setback, the plug-and-play replacement offers no ceiling relief. The combination of health risk, blitz exposure and capped rushing touchdown probability makes Lawrence a bench in standard one-QB leagues while you hold for the plush post-Week-11 schedule of Tennessee, Cleveland and Houston.