Analyze Treveyon Henderson's matchup for week 10
Henderson’s 18-touch breakout in Week 9 coincides with a Buccaneers defense ranked 27th in RB fantasy points allowed, making him a safe FLEX with RB2 upside even if Rhamondre Stevenson suits up.
Tampa Bay is giving up 99.6 rush yards a game at 4.1 YPC and has already allowed 92 RB receptions for 709 yards and 4 TDs through the air—precisely the avenue where Henderson’s 4-catch floor plays. With the Patriots likely committed to a run-heavy, clock-controlling plan to protect Drake Maye on the road, Henderson should see 12–15 carries plus 3–4 targets against a front seven that just surrendered double-digit fantasy days to backs in three of its last four games.
After a slow start, Henderson has set back-to-back career highs in carries (14) and total touches (18) the past two weeks, turning that volume into 130 total yards and entrenching himself as the clear 1B—potentially 1A if Stevenson’s toe remains an issue.
The rookie’s ascension is less about one explosive play and more about cumulative trust—he played 49% of snaps in Week 9, ran twice as many routes as Stevenson, and handled 100% of the two-minute work. That usage spike matters against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed but, more importantly, 28th in receiving success rate to backs. Linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David have struggled in coverage (72% completion rate allowed), so Henderson’s polished route-running out of the backfield should keep the chains moving and his PPR floor stable. Game script also tilts positive: the Bucs’ offense is banged up and could struggle to build a big lead, keeping the Patriots’ run script intact deep into the fourth quarter. The lone red flag is red-zone variance—New England has the third-lowest RB rush share inside the 10-yard line—yet Henderson’s pass-game involvement offers a detour to pay-dirt through the air. Expect 14–17 total touches, 75–90 scrimmage yards, and a 40% chance at a touchdown—numbers that play comfortably in the FLEX window and spike into mid-tier RB2 territory if he finds the end zone once.