Analyze Travies Etienne's matchup for week 10
Etienne’s carry count has sunk to 12 or fewer in three straight games and the Jaguars are now using a true backfield committee, so even a middling Texans run defense can’t make him more than a desperation FLEX who needs one broken tackle to return value.
Houston enters Week 10 allowing 106 rushing yards per game (18th) and 4.2 YPC, middle-of-pack numbers that theoretically give a lead back room to operate. The Texans have surrendered only three rushing TDs, however, and Etienne is no longer the Jaguars’ unquestioned goal-line option—he’s split red-zone work with Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. On paper the matchup is neutral-to-slight-favorable, but paper assumes 15-plus touches, a threshold he hasn’t hit since Week 5.
Since his 143-yard Week 1 explosion, Etienne’s yardage and efficiency have fallen every week, bottoming out at 27 yards on 2.3 YPC in Week 6 before a modest 84-yard rebound against the Raiders; the constant is 12 or fewer carries in three consecutive games.
The most troubling aspect of Etienne’s 2025 season is the clear philosophical shift in Jacksonville’s offense. After opening the year with a 24-carry, 143-yard statement, he’s been capped at 14 touches or fewer in five of the last seven games. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor has explicitly moved to a committee, scripting drives that feature Tuten on early downs and Allen in obvious passing situations. That approach caps Etienne’s ceiling at whatever he can produce in a 50-55 percent snap share, forcing fantasy managers to rely on explosive plays rather than steady volume. His 5.3 seasonal YPC still flashes the home-run ability, but without goal-line work or a 20-carry pathway, he’s become a volatile lottery ticket.
The Texans’ run defense is exploitable, yet not so bad that it guarantees production for a part-time back. Houston fronts a light box on just 28 percent of snaps (sixth-lowest), trusting safeties Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock to crash down and limit explosives. That strategy has held opponents to 3.9 YPC on first down, precisely the situation where Etienne used to do his damage. If Jacksonville falls behind—as 3.5-point underdogs—the game script will funnel toward Trevor Lawrence’s arm, further shrinking Etienne’s already diminished touch floor. The Jaguars’ 58 percent run rate when leading drops to 39 percent when trailing by a score, a split that directly undercuts the one path where Etienne could see 15-plus carries.
Bottom line, Etienne is no longer an every-week RB2; he’s a FLEX-only gamble whose range of outcomes sits somewhere between a 3-yard dud and a 40-yard house call. In 12-team leagues with multiple byes or injuries, you may be forced to plug him in and hope the latter hits. In any format where you own even a low-end back with locked-in touches—think Zack Moss versus Carolina or Gus Edwards at Arizona—those players offer the predictable floor Etienne can’t provide right now. Until the Jaguars recommit to a workhorse model, treat him as a boom-or-bust bye-week filler, not a lineup staple.