Analyze Tetairoa Macmillan's matchup for week 10
Rookie phenom Tetairoa McMillan draws a dream matchup versus a Saints secondary that’s hemorrhaging 143 yards and 1.3 TDs per game to wideouts; his 26% target share and 6'5" frame make him a high-floor, high-ceiling WR2 play.
New Orleans enters Week 10 ranked 20th in pass-defense DVOA and has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to outside WRs. With no top-30 graded corner per PFF, the Saints have surrendered 13.1 YPR and 12 WR touchdowns. Carolina’s improving line (just 3 QB hits last week) should give Bryce Young time to feed McMillan, who paces the team with a 26% target share and 15.3 YPR.
McMillan has led Carolina in targets every game this year (7.7 per contest), posting 4+ catches in all nine outings, but he’s scored only once since Week 4 and is due for positive touchdown regression.
McMillan’s 69 targets on the season are the 11th-most among rookies since 2010 through nine weeks, and his 15.3 YPR ranks top-10 among 40-catch receivers. Against man-heavy defenses like New Orleans (sixth-highest man rate), his size-adjusted route-running has produced a 78% catchable-target rate, per SIS. The Saints’ primary outside corners, Paulson Adebo and rookie Jordan Branch, have combined for just three passes defended on throws 15-plus yards downfield; McMillan’s average depth of target (11.8 yards) and 6'5" frame create a stark mismatch. Expect 8-10 looks, with at least two coming inside the red zone—an area where New Orleans has allowed a league-worst 72% completion rate to WRs. Volume plus matchup equates to a 95% snap share and a legitimate shot at his first 100-yard, multi-TD game of the year.